Unified communications (UC) -- the combination of VoIP, instant
messaging, video and email -- will play a major role in pushing the
PBX market to more than $7.5 billion by 2011, according to a recent
report by the Dell'Oro Group.
According to the report, expanding demand will also fuel growth
of VoIP deployments as IP telephony gains popularity in businesses
of all sizes. But despite growing over the next couple of years,
PBX sales will plateau come 2009, the report indicates.
"Dell'Oro Group projects that revenue for the PBX market will
peak in 2009 and flatten out through 2011," the report states. "As
VoIP matures, more functionality is leaving the core PBX switch and
moving data equipment onto the LAN or into software running outside
the PBX switch, either in services running in the enterprise core
or on phones."
When sales level out, vendors will have to adapt.
"In 2006, we saw numerous announcements from vendors heading
toward a more software-oriented PBX -- for example, by offering
increased functionality via software that differentiated their PBX
from a competitor's or additional features incorporated inside data
network equipment," the report says.
In general, IP PBX sales will strengthen the most. Other PBX
segments are expected to fall short, however. For example, hybrid
IP/TDM PBX revenues are expected to decline, starting in 2010; and
by 2011, traditional PBXs are projected to make up less than 5% of
the overall market -- a massive decline from 2002, when the
traditional PBX segments accounted for more than 85% of market
revenues.
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Dell'Oro Group said one in three new line shipments were IP in
2006, while one in 10 lines of the installed base was IP. Large
enterprises are furthest along in VoIP migration -- almost all of
their PBX purchases are VoIP, and they're also switching out branch
offices and handsets. Government agencies and universities are
coming along as well, but their IP purchases are mostly limited to
PBXs, suggesting little or no intention of upgrading handsets.
Small and midsized businesses (SMBs) have been a bit slower than
large enterprises to migrate to VoIP, mostly because of cost and
complexity.
"Large enterprises have led the way in the deployment of IP
telephony, and now we are seeing SMBs also realizing the benefits
of VoIP," said a statement by Alan Weckel, analyst of IP telephony
enterprise research at Dell'Oro Group.
Dell'Oro expects IP lines to become the majority of shipments
and IP PBX and Hybrid IP/TDM PBX to constitute more than 80% of the
installed base in 2011.
UC will also play a significant role as companies seek to
integrate voice with other communication modes, such as instant
messaging and video, and other collaborative applications, such as
email and messaging.
Weckel said companies are going out and buying IP PBXs today in
an attempt to future-proof and roadmap for future UC capabilities
that may not necessarily be on their radar screens today. Companies
are looking to UC both to boost productivity and enable more
collaboration, he said.
"UC could have a significant impact on the enterprise voice
market and on all the vendors that currently sell into it," the
report states. "Currently, UC plays a more important role in larger
system deployments than in the SMB because large enterprises have
the IT staff to install and maintain the necessary components."
Dell'Oro Group said UC adoption will take time because many
products and services need extra time to mature. The release of
Microsoft's Office Communication Server will ease UC deployments
for SMB markets, however, because of simpler installation and
maintenance.
"It is reasonable to believe that UC will be the next disruptive
technology in voice and that the market share and positioning of
current vendors will change during the forecast period," the report
states.
Weckel added: "Large enterprises are testing the waters with
Unified Communications solutions that promise to provide users with
a cohesive communications experience in which voice, instant
messaging, video and email are integrated together."