Sony, it appears, is giving Microsoft cause for concern. You may remember me telling you that the Linux OS is now available on the PlayStation 2.0. You can't do much more than write programs with it today but the writing is on the wall - or screen - nonetheless.
Sony has been "penguined" and, what's more, it has agreed to install Sun's StarOffice on "many" of its computers. Sun is cheerfully writing Microsoft's epitaph as a consequence.
It's hard to say whether this is Sony's revenge for Microsoft's attempt to muscle in on the games market with Xbox, or whether the company feels it can make its Vaio PCs more competitive if it leaves out the cost of Microsoft's "commission" on Office.
Although Microsoft would probably shrug all this off as being inconsequential, it's hard to ignore the wider implications of a large PC manufacturer such as Sony breaking ranks and letting Microsoft know that its software is too expensive, in contrast with a single-user licence for StarOffice.
Many users will still prefer to have Office preinstalled, whatever the cost, as it is the industry standard. But standards come and go. Remember VisiCalc, Lotus 1-2-3, cc:Mail and even Netscape?
Standards are, invariably, the product of commercial forces. Give enough copies of Internet Explorer away and it becomes the "standard" Internet browser. Give away enough copies of StarOffice and - well, Sun keeps hoping.
Unlike other computer manufacturers who are rather less intimidated by Microsoft than they were before the anti-trust case, Sony is diversified enough and has both the brand and financial muscle to open a crack in Microsoft's armour.
In December 1997, in my then eBusiness Magazine, I wrote about "the high licensing costs of Office", saying: "The industry has reached a fork in the road. In one direction the world has a Microsoft logo right through it and in the other, there's the hope of more diversity." Five years later, the logo is there, right enough but diversity hasn't made much in the way of an appearance.
But every commodity has a financial breaking point. There comes a time when businesses spontaneously arrive at the same conclusion, that a product or a service has become more of a luxury than a necessity and simple economics forces a switch of supplier. A trickle becomes a stream, which rapidly becomes a torrent.
Will Microsoft learn from history or become a victim of history? I'd like a new Jaguar but I can't afford one. In the middle of a recession in IT spending, businesses are in the Mondeo mindset and don't really care whether James Bond uses Office or not.
All that's really needed is a single maverick player like Sony and a gentle enough collective shove from the PC manufacturers to loosen Microsoft's vice-like grip on the preinstalled universe. It may take another five years, but if prices continue to rise it may not take that long.
What's your view?
Is the writing on the wall for Microsoft? Tell us in an e-mail >> CW360.com reserves the right to edit and publish answers on the Web site. Please state if your answer is not for publication.
Zentelligence Setting the world to rights with the collected thoughts and opinions of the futurist writer, broadcaster and Computer Weekly columnist Simon Moores.