History suggests that Microsoft's Tablet PC will struggle to make
its mark in businesses.
Is the Tablet PC ready for the big time? We should start to find
out next month, when Acer, Hewlett-Packard, Siemens-Fujitsu and
other manufacturers join Microsoft in launching PCs in this
not-so-new form factor.
There are, of course, some reasons for optimism. First, the new
machines have a better operating system than earlier efforts:
Microsoft's Windows XP Tablet PC Edition. This captures handwriting
with a speed and fluency not seen before on a screen.
Second, there is a computer industry trend towards portable form
factors, such as notebook and handheld PCs, rather than desktop
machines. The arrival of Wi-Fi (802.11b) networking has now made
portability attractive inside a company's offices, as well as on
the road.
With a Tablet PC, you can take your computer to meetings, instead
of leaving it behind on your desk. And while at meetings, you can
make notes in a socially acceptable way: by writing instead of
typing.
Third, Tablet PCs can make economic sense. Obviously, most
companies will not want to shell out to buy loads of new PCs.
However, many computer users now think in terms of having three
personal computers: a desktop, a notebook, and a handheld. A
convertible Tablet - one that combines a keyboard with a
touch-sensitive screen - could be the one machine that replaces all
three.
But history suggests that the Tablet PC will struggle to make any
headway. At one time, many people believed that handwriting
recognition was the natural next step for computing. However,
pioneers of this method of input, such as Go Corporation, Slate,
Momenta, and Active Book, failed in the marketplace. The first IBM
Thinkpad - a tablet PC without a keyboard - did not last long, and
Apple's Newton was a spectacular flop.
Also, users who are smart enough to have learned how to touch-type
will not be pleased about being driven back to handwriting,
especially given the vagaries of handwriting-recognition software.
It is, of course, true that there is already a healthy market for
tablet computers. They are used in thousands of vertical
applications in the insurance, health care, and transportation
industries, as well as for things like market research and sales
force automation. Ruggedised versions are used in industrial
applications on the factory floor.
But this blue-collar success does not guarantee that Tablet PCs
will be able to make the breakthrough required to make them popular
among white-collar workers as well.
The Tablet PC could be a huge success, but in my view, the odds are
50:50 at best.
Jack Schofield is computer editor at the Guardian