While Silicon Valley shudders at the prospect of global recession,
the "smart" software companies are reaping the spoils of war, says
John Charlton
Those of you who shook a tail-feather in the 1970s may recall the
pithy words of Tamla Motown artiste Edwin Starr: "War! Huh! What is
it good for? Absolutely nuthin'. I'll say it again" No, once is
quite enough Edwin.
He was wrong of course, as war has been 'good' for much of mankind
and especially the technologies that some of its number have
developed. Swords into ploughshares apart, tank technology fed into
earthmover equipment and German V2 rocket science fuelled the US
and Soviet space programmes. And just think what war has done for
the media. It has kept the BBC in sitcoms for the past 40 years,
and given Kate Adie places to visit that don't feature in the Saga
brochure.
Could the great War Against Terrorism (WAT), that presently unfolds
in the Newsnight studio, be the saviour that the beleaguered IT
industry is hoping for? It's beginning to look that way in Silicon
Valley, where the dotcom bust has wasted many companies and
careers.
In the Golden State, where once the peace 'n' love movement
flourished, it is the defence industries that are hiring IT talent.
While the likes of H-P, Cisco and Sun are showing thousands the
door, defence contractors such as Lockheed, Boeing and Raytheon are
all recruiting. Smart weaponry, and even the rather less smart
stuff, needs complex software and semiconductor technology to get
it to the right destination - or even the wrong one. Also, and
increasingly so, those who fire the weapons are also kitted out
with IT, creating another lucrative market for suppliers to WAT
combatants.
Of course, California's hi-tech industries were built on the huge
defence programmes that ran from the late 1940s to the end of the
Cold War. Much the same in the UK, except on a much smaller scale.
As late as the mid-1980s defence and aerospace production accounted
for one-fifth of Silicon Valley's output, a figure which fell to 5%
this year. One winner looks likely to be the handheld computer
industry that has been having a lean time of it lately. Palm is
already supplying handhelds for personal use to many US naval
personnel - just as well given its sales have fallen over 50%
year-on-year and it has lost market leadership to Nokia - but
specialists are bringing out ruggedised models equipped with
military software that, according to my man in the Panshir Valley,
can map enemy locations and track personnel. One, a Paravant
hand-held dubbed the Leopard (whey are these things never called
the 'Sheep?'), can pinpoint targets by interacting with laser
binoculars. How long can it be before this becomes an accessory of
choice for the malcontents of our inner cities?
This may seem a bit excessive to those of us who believe in the
Corporal Jones school of military technology, but as the president
of Paravant, Rick McNeight, put it: "We are trying to provide our
soldiers with information dominance."
Not something that troubled British General Lord Roberts when he
trounced the Afghan Army at Kandahar in 1880 with bullet, bayonet
and discipline rather than Palm Pilots. Nor can one imagine the
Taliban or yer man Bin Laden worrying overmuch about winning the
information war. Looking beyond a rise in demand for
military-related IT, other bonanzas are looming for the
industry.
Although many IT execs will not admit it, demand for, and interest
in, disaster recovery and business continuity services has soared
since the September 11 terrorist attacks. Many providers were able
to prove themselves in the aftermath and it's likely that all
organisations of a certain size in the developed world will be
legally obliged to have IT DR plans in place before long. The days
when the only disaster plan was knowing the chief op's girlfriend's
home number are long gone.
The other Eldorado springing from the WAT will be and security, and
personal ID. Encryption software will become ever-more important.
And, while the Government may have shied away from national ID
cards, it's almost certain that workers at sensitive sites, such as
airports and nuclear power stations, will be equipped with very
smart ID devices which will contain relevant embedded chips and
software rather than a passport pic of some bloke sporting a
moustache and a beard.
And we all know who he might be, don't we?