Simon MooresOpinion
I call it "the digital dilemma". The quiet seaside town where I
spent this Christmas is under threat. The sudden and almost magical
arrival of two out-of-town shopping malls is ripping the heart out
of small businesses in the area.
At the same time, these larger, well-established department
store operators are themselves in danger, not from bigger
competitors but from another threat, that of online shopping.
Indeed, one of the largest and oldest retail businesses in the area
doesn't even have a Web site or e-mail.
While most corporate interests appear to focus on new "virtual"
businesses - worth any sum you may wish to imagine - the greatest
challenge faced by our "nation of shopkeepers" is the transitional
and evolutionary nature of commerce itself.
The danger I foresee is that the rapid spread and integration of
digital TV and the Internet will, in its own way, challenge the
existence of even the largest high-street businesses. This
phenomenon will mirror the way in which the introduction of well
established traders into shopping malls tolled the knell for small
businesses in town centres.
The challenge of managing this process of change will, this
month, fall on the shoulders of one man, who was until recently our
high commissioner to Australia.
Alex Allan is the prime minister's own appointment to the role
of "e-envoy" and few will envy the scale of his task.
Perhaps a better title might be "master of change", because that's
what he is.
In the first few weeks of the 21st century, there exists a
chronic imbalance between the old and the new orders of
business-to-business and business-to-consumer trading.
What's required is a path that will allow market forces to
operate unhindered, while at the same time act as a thermostat of
social change. This is a compromise, of course, and Allan and his
team will be exploring all the options, searching perhaps for the
third way of managing an Internet economy.
Simon Moores is chairman of the Windows NT Forum and Java
Forum