Michael Pincher gazes into his crystal ball and offers
up his predictions as to what's in store for us in the year ahead -
and some suggestions of alternative career paths just in case the
downturn does its worst to the world of tech!
If you could see things coming, would you want to look?
Fortunately, as we know so little about the future, prediction is
neither an art nor a science. However, in an attempt to seek order
from chaos, here are my insights into the technology trends to
watch in 2009.
Rarefied communications
Following a radical consolidation in the communicatons industry
the number of vendors will halve. Check out your supplier and
develop a Plan B - you might need it.
Bandwidth crunch
As online video streaming and mass downloading increase with
more people finding themselves 'at home' during the day, we will
inch towards a network crunch, with less bandwidth available than
is required to meet demand.
ASBOs online
Anti-social networking technologies will take off as people 1)
realise they don't know how to make use of personal connections
forged online and 2) a silo mentality starts to develop between
those with jobs and money and those without.
Lack-of-knowledge workers
Business Intelligence, a technology intended to improve decision
making from strategy to operations, fall into disrepute as its
take-up by the banking industry is no longer seen as the
endorsement it once was.
Discretionary spending
Demand for IT projects will drop off the cliff in January,
raising an early warning flag for service providers looking to book
new projects in 2009. IT contractors will bear the brunt of cuts in
a cost-constrained world as CIOs look to cut their costs on
application-related development and maintenance work.
Return on investment
ROI is the name of the game for 2009. CIOs will be buying on a
need versus want basis and will be downsizing deals to fit within
current constraints and searching for solutions with a high and
fast ROI. The greatest potential for cost reduction is in the area
of networking equipment and the purchases of personal computer
systems, servers and storage - so expect demand for these to
fall.
What’s hot - not!
Hot-button technologies such as as cloud computing, grid
computing and open-source software deployments will see a slowing
down of interest as CIOs rely on tested, well-understood
technologies that result in savings or increased business
efficiencies, the support of which can be more easily argued from a
financial point of view. IT will come under the firm control of the
financial director.
Big Brother
RFID tagging, however, will heat up, particularly when applied
to paper to safeguard confidential information and intellectual
property. Expect Her Majesty's Government to realise its benefits
and to initiate a project to install RFID chips on every ID card,
with a link to the DNA database.
Uber-Machine
Invasive technology is with us. Your 'embedded mouse'will
monitor productivity, competence and stress levels and alert HR if
you are in need of a service. Very soon they’ll be able to track
you on Google based internet wireless video.
Video conferencing
Video conferencing may not be sexy but with organisations under
huge pressure to reduce their environmental damage footprint and
to cut costs internally, the time and expense taken by travel will
start to look wasteful. Forget the chance for a coffee with
colleagues - video and telephone conferencing is the way ahead.
Green IT
Environmental regulations will multiply and constrain companies
in the building of data centres as the effect of power grids,
carbon emissions and other environmental impacts comes under
scrutiny.
eBooks
As most readers are addicts, eBooks will see a boom in demand as
people seek escapism and the mobile device comes of age.
End of the line - all change!
Finally, if working in the IT industry has finally become too
much, here is a list of some careers likely to do well in a
downturn, in case you fancy making the switch!
- Clergy
- Riot controller
- Genetic counsellor
- Security system technician
- Mediator
- Occupational therapist
Here's to 2009!
Photo credits:Happy New
Year 2009 by basibanget on Flickr and
Crystal ball
by deanfotos66 on Flickr