At the end of 2007, we asked Computer Weekly's band of
bloggers to prognosticate for 2008. We asked them to respond to
three questions:
What will be the dominant item on the CIO agenda in
2008?
How will the predicted economic slowdown affect IT
professionals in the UK?
What issues will emerge around managing the "Web 2.0
generation"?
These are some of their responses:
David
Lacey
It is that time of year when the pundits and their sponsors like
to look back on how things went, and what the coming year might
promise. For me, an enthusiastic futurist and a serial forecaster,
it is a fascinating time.
The dominant issue for 2008 will be security, which will stand
out as a surefire case for increased spending in a tough year of
belt-tightening. It will be driven by fear, as boards grasp the
uncomfortable fact that they simply do not have sufficient control
or assurance of their management of sensitive personal data.
Human factors will be an obvious focus because they are are
fashionable.
Compliance will continue to be the safest area for suppliers to
focus on. Imaginative business cases with payback periods of more
than a year are likely to be consigned to the back burner. Unless,
of course, you can persuade your management board that it is a
strategic business investment.
Few IT investments hit that spot, but there is increasing
evidence that IT professionals are becoming more business-aligned.
So perhaps we can anticipate some long-overdue innovation from
those highly paid CIO appointments.
Social networking, or
Web 2.0 if you prefer, might be the card to play to engage the
more innovative board. But I have yet to encounter an organisation
that has got to grips with the issues and the imaginative solutions
needed to deliver business value. So I will stick with the old, and
very sensible, adage of not implementing a point-zero software
version until the service pack appears.
Social networking presents huge risks. If you do not know what
you are doing, sit back and wait for the dust to clear.
Adam
Burstow
The dominant item on the CIO agenda in 2008 will be how to get
new customers and deliver promises to current customers.
Achieving this usually boils down to two things: effective,
innovative processes and useful management information. Some of it
will not be glamorous, but it is the bread and butter work of my
team. However much we do in these areas, there always seems to be a
good case to do more.
As for how the predicted economic slowdown will affect IT
professionals, the instinctive reaction might be to batten down the
hatches, but on reflection I think this will present many
opportunities for IT professionals. Focus on projects that get
customers and keep them happy.
Our IT development team is full of the "Web 2.0 generation" -
bright, open and instinctively collaborative. The best way to
manage them seems to be to give them interesting projects and shiny
new technology. Oh, and don't block access to Facebook
Philip
Virgo
Survival in the face of ferocious budget cuts will be the
dominant item on the CIO agenda in 2008. The obvious way forward is
to find ways of cutting external spending while improving quality
of service. Meanwhile, exploit the current paranoia by organising
an information risk audit to buy time.
As part of this, audit all the software on the network,
ostensibly to reduce vulnerability, but also so that you can cut
what you do not need - saving on support costs as well as
licences.
At least 10% of IT professionals will lose their jobs as a
result of the economic slowdown, and probably more. The cuts will
be concentrated among those in the middle, doing jobs that could be
outsourced abroad, or working on projects that will get the
chop. The only people relatively immune will be those with
world-class skills who are working on systems that are core to
business, those who are thoroughly competent in user support, and
those in information security.
The key issues for Web 2.0 users will be around authenticating
who you are dealing with, as the technology is increasingly used
for business purposes, including customer feedback.
The discovery of what China has been doing by visitors to the
Olympic Games (from new communications infrastructures to the
Beijing Cyber Recreation District) will send a wake-up call to
complacent Westerners.
We will take up the Chinese ambassador's offer of 1,000 Mandarin
teachers - "volunteered" from among their students of English - for
our schools, so that our children can socially network with those
who are changing the world.
Stuart
King
If I have to make one prediction for 2008, it is that we will
see an increase in reports of targeted attacks against
organisations of all sizes and types. That such attacks are already
happening goes without saying, because penetrating the average
corporation appears to be child's play for the skilled
attacker.
Bruce Schneier wrote two years ago about an increase in targeted
attacks, "We are seeing a decline in the 'noisy' brute-force
vulnerability scanning that hobbyist hackers tended to favour, and
an increase in more targeted, stealthy and sophisticated
scanning."
The predominant targets back then were financial institutions.
Today, it is likely to be any organisation that values its data.
One example was when Oak Ridge National Laboratory experienced a
sophisticated cyberattack that appeared to be part of a
co-ordinated attempt to gain access to computer networks at
laboratories across the country.
We should assume that sooner or later something we do not want
is going to get into the network. Reduce the risks by looking at
the control areas - eg internet access, remote access, wireless
networks, device management - and ensuring basic tasks are
performed, such as logging, and controls are in place, such as IPS
between wireless and wired networks, and monitoring for rogue
access points. We also need protect data in-situ with encryption
and ensure incident response processes are well rehearsed.
My only other prediction for the year ahead is that it will be
business as usual. Our CIOs and business strategists might be
getting themselves hot under the collar about Web 2.0, social
networking and
virtual worlds, but you know and I know that we will continue
to have plenty of work to do as all the same old mistakes get
remade in slightly new and unusual ways.
Pincher & White
Extended security is going to be high on the agenda. It is easy
to poke fun at the government for its inept handing of data, but
its victims have no comeback when it comes to compensation. In the
commercial sector, that is a another matter. If a similar debacle
was uncovered with a bank, insurance or utility company, well
remember it is always the lawyers who win.
The trouble with security is that the Y generation do not get
it. Look at the number of
Blackberrys, phones, iPods and credit cards that are lost or
lifted every night. This is not a "lost" but a "loss" generation.
Commodity items are disposable and so is the data that goes with
them. As with all good commodities, the fix needs to be in the
products, not with the user - they do not care.
The IT sector in many areas has already felt the slowdown that
the rest of the economy is going to experience. The effect will be
for CIOs to further delay IT investments as budgets are squeezed.
But all is not gloom - projects that can deliver bottom line
benefits will get support from IT and the business.
Let 2008 be the year that there are no IT projects, just
business projects with an IT element. That will require a lot of
old farts retiring - the ones who refuse to get technology. Let's
hear it for the organisation that sees IT as an enabling
department, a sort of digital stationery cupboard where people can
come and rummage around for the right kit for the job.
The Web 2.0 generation cannot be "managed". They will determine
the needs, issues and opportunities that the collection of
technologies that make up Web 2.0 will be put to.
The Web 2.0 generation will pick up the "search for survival"
baton, and I hope they create collaborative technology mashups that
generate positive ideas and solutions.
A little bird has told me this is where emerging technology and
systems will focus, waste management, recycling and related stuff -
where there's muck, there's money.
David
Bicknell
Top of the CIO's agenda will be dealing with an economic winter
and still delivering results for the business. Success will go to
those who can best manage change, complexity and culture in a
challenging environment. It will not be the most important issue
for them, but some CIOs may also find green issues cropping up in
their KPIs.
There will be pressure on jobs from the economic slowdown, but
where there is challenge there is also opportunity, and innovation
will still be a key word.
The IT department that can deliver innovative processes in a
difficult environment will have the respect and support of the
business. However, it depends on the company: innovation to one may
be adopting cutting-edge technologies, but that may be the last
thing another firm wants.
In managing the Web 2.0 generation, there is a parallel with
RFID. It is about turning Web 2.0 pilots into meaningful business
developments and applying and incorporating the underlying
technologies and platforms to gain a real business advantage. Is
that Web 2.0 project nice to have? Or does it offer a real "change
the game" opportunity?