The first mover advantage window that WiMAX has in
establishing itself as the dominant future wireless broadcast
technology may be shorter than many first expected according to a
new report by ABI Research.
The new report examines major drivers and barriers for WiMAX
and compares it with 3G and other 4G technologies. It suggests
that even though service providers with the right spectrum,
available capital, and access to enough sites to place base
stations are in a great position to take advantage of WiMAX’s head
start on the 4G market, other technologies’ evolution is happening
quicker than expected.
LTE (Long-Term Evolution) and UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband) are
vying as potential wireless broadband technologies for 4G as well
but ABI Research predicts that UMB will not gain traction, leaving
what it calls a true battle for 4G between mobile WiMAX and
LTE.
In this battle, suggests ABI, even though mobile WiMAX has a
time-to-market advantage over LTE, delays in certifications by the
WiMAX Forum, coupled with delays in network rollouts, could narrow
the window of opportunity.
“The biggest opportunity for mobile WiMAX is the chance to
develop a wider device ecosystem and worldwide subscriber base
before LTE starts to do the same,” commented ABI Research principal
analyst Philip Solis.
“However, LTE remains a potential threat to WiMAX since
3GPP-backed LTE will become the dominant 4G technology and is
progressing quickly toward standardisation. Additionally, LTE is
seeing early trials take place while moving into [Time Division
Duplexing]
TDD as
well as FDD) spectrum territory.”
LTE has intrinsic advantages, being an extension of the existing
GSM-based networks used at over 80% of the installed base of
telecoms base stations worldwide. ABI forecasts that virtually all
WCDMA networks will migrate to LTE and deployment will be at a
faster rate than WiMAX with LTE subscriber numbers surpass mobile
WiMAX subscribers after 2015. However, around the same time that
LTE rolls out, 802.16m, or WiMAX 2.0, will make its way into
products.