Despite what pundits might have led us to believe over
the past 20 years,
the mainframe is not going to disappear any time
soon. What is going to change, however, is the mainframe
product environment. Organisations need to have plans in place
for either migrating or maintaining their current set-ups in the
changing environment.
In 1991 experts predicted that mainframes would be obsolete by
1996. Yet in 2007, mainframe-based programs still process about 75%
of the world's transactions, and IBM announced that more than 10
million mainframes were now in operation.
"Although firms are vocal in their dissatisfaction of the costs
of maintaining them, legacy mainframes continue to run core
business functions for medium, large, and Global 2000 companies,"
said Phil Murphy, principal analyst at Forrester Research.
However, in a 2006 survey conducted by Forrester, 49% of
companies said it was a priority or critical priority to replace or
upgrade mainframe applications. Murphy said there is demand among
larger companies to modernise their legacy mainframe programs, so
that they can run under potentially cheaper Linux operating
environments.
The other benefit to modernising mainframes is that it enables
the use of
Java over
Cobol. Java has a wider, more available
skills base than Cobol, which is the traditional language used
to code mainframe programs and faces a growing skills
shortage.
Total cost of ownership is key in determining whether a
modernisation plan should be undertaken. Fewer proprietary
platforms and cheaper alternatives make moving off the mainframe
compelling.
Supporting this need, a new segment of suppliers is providing
runtime environments designed to emulate the mainframe online as
well as in batch environments, either on Microsoft Windows or
Unix/Linux platforms.
Among the mainframe emulation products are
Neocics and
Neobatch from Fujitsu, as well as the
Enterprise Server with Mainframe Transaction Option from Micro
Focus and Unikix from Critical Path.
However, even though the move to a new technology platform can
reduce expenses and provide greater flexibility for larger
mainframe users, some organisations are reluctant to change. For
them, the process of modifying their systems can be expensive, as
it involves rewriting the software used to manage core business
processes.
Organisations have already wasted millions of pounds on
purported one-size-fits-all solutions to their legacy application
issues: dump the mainframe rip and replace move it all to Unix and,
most recently, outsource it all.
"The main decision facing mainframe users today is between
migrating to a new platform or staying with the system they have,"
said Dale Vecchio, research vice-president at analyst firm
Gartner.
Vecchio said mainframe users with processing requirements in the
500-2,000mips (millions of instructions per second) range may want
to move to what they see as a cheaper, more agile application
environment. "But they have shown tremendous reluctance to risk the
quality of service, performance, reliability and availability they
have come to expect from their legacy environments," Vecchio
said.
And yet the prevailing questions concerning moving from the
mainframe remain about Cobol versus Java or Cisco versus IBM
Websphere, rather than more fundamental issues.
"If a company decides to stick with its current system, then
they have to make an investment in ensuring they will still have
the required skill sets (eg Cobol) in place within the next 10
years," said Vecchio.
"They must also realise that IBM's modernisation strategy for
mainframes lies essentially in Java, and must be able to put a cost
on maintaining legacy systems."
Vecchio added that organisations leaving the mainframe behind in
favour of alternative platforms should consider that they could be
moving to a potentially lower quality of service, with a more
complex infrastructure and a more lax design discipline to software
applications, and that there would be no one supplier driving
towards a consistent architecture.
"The quality of service of the mainframe represents the epitome
of reliability, availability and serviceability. Platform
migrations require significant effort to come close to this quality
on different hardware platforms."
Vecchio said that one of the greatest risks for these systems is
not with the applications themselves, but rather with the growing
shortage of IT professionals with the skills to continue to
develop, maintain and operate the applications.
Modernisation is not just an application issue. Modernisation
also has implications on the underlying IT infrastructure that
serves as the platform for delivering the applications.
Replicating the quality of service of established systems on new
and dissimilar platforms requires strong focus and attention.
"Migration is saving IT organisations money, time and the effort
of trying to locate and hire competently skilled resources in
waning legacy technology. But do not throw the baby out with the
bath water," said Murphy.
Firms, including large insurance companies, have tried and
failed to migrate finely-tuned, high-performing applications.
Clearly, these applications can only continue to deliver value
under new environments if they maintain the quality of service
provided by the mainframe.
"Do the homework and determine the true resource requirements of
supporting applications on or off the mainframe - do not assume
that because someone else saved money moving off the mainframe,
that you will too," said Murphy.
IBM's Viper attacks mainframe market
>>
EMC protects mainframe environments >>
Big iron's battle of the boxes >>
'Mainframe masters' highlight job opportunities >>
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