It's really hard to single out the key events in fields as big as
mobile computing and wireless communications, no matter what the
time frame under consideration. I speak at a lot of conferences,
and I'm often asked to send in my slides two months or so in
advance of the event. I always have to let the organizers know that
rapidly changing areas of technology don't allow for such a luxury
and that slides produced so far in advance will be obsolete, at
least in places, if deadlines like these are imposed. The beauty of
publishing on the Web, of course, is that this probability is
pretty small.
Besides, we're going to look at the really big, key developments
in mobile computing and communications of 2006. And the biggest of
all, of course, is the rise of truly mobile broadband
communications. During 2006, all of the major cellular operators,
with the exception of T-Mobile, enhanced the footprints of their 3G
services. T-Mobile, in another big story, obtained access to
significant chunks of newly auctioned spectrum, and they'll be busy
throughout 2007 building out their UMTS network. No matter who the
carrier, though, mobile broadband is going to become a reality in a
big way. In an announcement just a few days ago, the backers of
EV-DO Rev C renamed this technology Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB)
and noted throughput numbers as high as 280 Mbps! This, even to me,
is amazing. I remember back in 1993 and 1994 when we were using
two-way wide-area systems that could barely support 4.8 Kbps
(although they were marketed as 19.2 Kbps -- some things never
change!). Now we're talking about wireless-LAN-class speeds, and
there still appears to be no limit to what we mere mortals are
willing to pay for such service. Research projects reporting
throughput as high as 1 Gbps and even 2.4 Gbps have been conducted.
Today, practical speeds as high as 700-900 Kbps are regularly
obtained, and the progress will continue.
The next jumping-off point in throughput, in fact, will be the
result of another huge story this year, and that's Sprint's
decision to deploy WiMAX in the U.S. I expect WiMAX to offer 2-4
Mbps when it's launched in Chicago and Washington, D.C., late next
year. And I expect the price to be about half what we pay today –
perhaps as low as $30-40 per month. The pending availability of
WiMAX in the U.S. is nevertheless providing significant stimulation
to the competition, so price/performance is going to improve even
if prices do not drop that rapidly. In any event, 2006 will be
remembered as the definitive year for mobile broadband, with the
announcement of mobile WiMAX a positively groundbreaking
development.
Finally, 2006 saw the rise of Windows Mobile as the preferred
operating environment for mobile devices. OK, I'm out on a limb
just a little bit here, and I'm not even all that big a fan of
Windows Mobile. I've never, in fact, been all that crazy about
Microsoft products, which I find … um … complex. And Windows Mobile
sales were certainly below expectations this year. But with Palm
shipping Windows Mobile products and with so many others now
available, it's only a matter of time before enterprise IT jumps on
the Windows Mobile Bandwagon. For traditional mobile devices, with
local storage and processing, Windows Mobile is now very clearly
the winner.
But before even I get too excited here, there's another
alternative to Windows Mobile that's even more interesting in the
long term, and I'll have more on that in my next column.
About the author: Craig Mathias is a principal with Farpoint
Group, an advisory firm based in Ashland, Mass., specializing in
wireless networking and mobile computing. The firm works with
manufacturers, enterprises, carriers, government, and the financial
community on all aspects of wireless and mobile. He can be reached
at craig@farpointgroup.com.