The WiMax mobile wireless standard is gaining support
among telecoms companies, but industry observers are concerned
there is a risk of it becoming over-hyped.
The fixed side of WiMax is well along the path to
commercialisation, but mobile WiMax will not be in wide use until
after 2009, according to Gartner.
"It's very easy, given the huge amount of WiMax hype at the
moment, to see WiMax as the next big thing after 3G," said Gartner
analyst Ian Keene. "But that's not the case - it's a fixed wireless
solution, an alternative to DSL. Mobile WiMax is a new cellular
technology, and it's got a heck of a long way to go."
WiMax, based on the IEEE 802.16 group of standards, is intended
to replace two distinct types of wireless broadband technology:
fixed wireless, which could compete with or supplement ADSL, cable
and leased lines, and mobile wireless, which makes broadband speeds
available anywhere in a coverage area, including moving vehicles or
public places. Mobile WiMax could complement 3G and Wi-Fi
hotspots.
The standard is designed to make equipment less expensive and
more interoperable, which would improve the business case for
building networks. Equipment using the fixed 802.16d standard will
arrive this year, and be certified next year. the WiMax Forum has
promised that a relatively easy upgrade will add on mobile 802.16e
capabilities, but 802.16e equipment will not be ready for another
three years or so.
The WiMax Forum, the industry group promoting WiMax, got a boost
on Monday when BT and France T él écom became members, along with
Qwest Communications International, Reliance Telecom and XO
Communications.
The official support of BT and T él écom will be valuable, since
service providers are, necessarily, WiMax's target customers, but
both operators see WiMax as a supplement to their existing wired
networks.
Operators who want mobile broadband are more ambiguous in their
attitudes to WiMax. Verizon Communications, Sprint and Nextel
Communications, for example, have all said they are interested in
mobile broadband but none are WiMax Forum members.
Since February, Nextel has been conducting trials of a
proprietary technology from Flarion in the US, and the company
emphasised that mobility is key to its offering.
"This is for customers who don't want to be tied to their desk
or their office. You can go anywhere and use this service," said
Nextel spokesman Chris Grandis. "It's beyond 3G."
Nextel also offers a wireless data card for laptops, operating
at dial-up speeds, and plans to use Motorola's WiDEN technology to
quadruple bandwidth, in the second half of this year.
Sprint and Verizon are toying with high-speed cellular
technologies such as EV-DO while waiting to see if anything
promising emerges from WiMax efforts, but could just as easily use
proprietary equipment if it is more cost effective, the companies
have said.
"We do keep an eye on WiMax as we do all new technologies," said
Sprint spokesman Charles Fleckenstein. "If it makes business sense
to move forward in this area, Sprint will do so."
In Europe, where 3G rollouts are already well advanced, wireless
operators such as Vodafone Group and T-Mobile International have
even less incentive to jump on board a mobile technology that is
years away, said IDC analyst Jan Hein Bakkers.
"We don't think there will be any standardised [mobile WiMax]
products before 2007," he said. "By that time there will be a lot
of Wi-Fi hotspots out there already, and operators will have more
UMTS [a 3G standard] networks. I don't see WiMax bringing that much
additional value."
Others predicted more service providers will get on board the
WiMax bandwagon, but agreed that it is still unclear what role
WiMax will play. "It's a very new technology, and operators are not
absolutely certain where it fits in with the other parts of the
jigsaw puzzle, vis-a-vis 3G, Wi-Fi hotspots and so on," said
Infonetics analyst Richard Webb.
Fixed WiMax has a more immediate potential for success, analysts
said, because it will provide services similar to existing wireless
broadband, while introducing lower costs and equipment
interoperability.
Small wireless ISPs such as Irish Broadband in Dublin, NextWeb
in California and TowerStream on the US east coast are offering
wireless services that compete with existing wired offerings. A
survey published this week by ABI Research found that more than
half of small wireless ISPs planned to deploy WiMax equipment as
soon as it is available to reduce equipment costs.
Larger Western European telcos primarily want WiMax to fill in
the gaps in their wired networks. Earlier this week BT said it
would use a combination of ADSL and a WiMax-like system from
Alvarion to provide broadband across Northern Ireland. BT has said
it is interested in migrating to WiMax-standard gear.
Some analysts see this as a shrinking niche. BT also announced
this week it will enable another 1,128 ADSL exchanges by mid-2005
which, it claimed, will give broadband access to 99.6% of UK
businesses and households. France T él écom's ADSL will reach 90%
of businesses and households this year, according to IDC.
Across Western Europe, about 83% of consumers and businesses had
access to broadband last year, and in the next two years or so that
will rise to 90% to 95%, according to IDC's Bakkers. "In Western
Europe, the role of WiMax will be limited," he said.
WiMax is expected to come fully into its own in areas where
networks are not as fully built-out as in Western Europe and the
US, such as Eastern Europe.
"Regardless of which vendor comes out on top, it is the millions
of people in rural and developing markets who stand to gain the
most from WiMax," said Pyramid Research analyst John Yunker.
Matthew Broersma writes for
Techworld.com