Strategy clinic:Consult the experts
- Posted:
- 16:12 31 Oct 2002
- Topics:
- Mobile & Wireless Networking | PDA & Hand-helds
The answer:
Screen size and price are key
This market has proved hard to predict, and if the mobile phone companies knew the answer, they probably would not tell us. Wap (Wireless Application Protocol) has several problems, the most obvious being a screen so small that it is like reading information from tickertape.
Moving up to a personal digital assistant (PDA)-type screen is OK for text that is read sequentially, but newspapers do not publish in this format because readers want to scan and then select. The same usability is achievable with a PC screen. So we need devices that are light and small enough for easy portability - say a tablet with an A5-sized screen - for portable browsing to be attractive. If the technology for that is available, then the other question is how much the mobile companies will charge us for the experience. I suspect it will be seen as "niche" and priced accordingly.
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Roger Marshall, Elite
Wap is not the only route
The Cranfield/Microsoft workforce agility survey conducted in spring 2001 found adoption of mobile Internet to be about 23% last year. A further 36% of organisations planned to use mobile Internet access by mid-2003. Given that GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) is now available and mobile Internet devices are becoming easier to use, we are likely to see its steady growth.
In the short term, much of the growth in business use of mobile devices is likely to come from SMS and standard Internet access - such as using Internet Explorer on a PDA - rather than from Wap. SMS has plenty of business potential to deliver at low cost. Compared with Wap, mobile Web browsers provide access to richer online content combined with remote access to the office. Our survey found mobile phone usage to be more than 90% while PDA usage was 40%, so many business users already have the technology to do this.
Over the longer term, it is not clear what distinctive value Wap has to offer: 3G will bring major changes, although pricing and the timing of its roll out will determine its uptake. Other mobile standards, such as Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) will also be competing for the limelight.
Christopher Hemingway, Cranfield
Trading up set to start next year
The low take-up of Wap results from the saturation of the mobile phone market and low churn of handhelds, and the failure of the major providers to offer any compelling reasons for people to trade up and pay more. Security issues, accessibility and general techno-fatigue have resulted in people not rushing to be early adopters.
This will all change next year, however, when natural wastage starts to really kick in and begins to coincide with genuine advances in technology and accessibility. By the end of 2003, the new wave of really useful handheld devices will be on the streets and people will start to realise the true potential of these advances.
Hugh Macken, Certus
Usability and 'killer' app needed
Usability will be the deciding factor for when Internet on the move becomes a reality, possibly combined with a "killer" application. Wap did not live up to early expectations, as the "Internet on the move" was not the Internet that everyone had started to get used to.
Wap is useful for specific areas and is being rolled out as an underlying protocol. However, small screens, low bandwidth, raised expectations and limited uses have minimised its impact.
It is worth remembering that the Internet did not have global impact until the browser became the killer application. SMS text messaging has exploded in a short space of time simply because it is usable and meets expectations.
How long it will be before "realistic" mobile Internet arrives depends on bandwidth, hardware and usability. Handset developments, combined with developments in 2.5G and 3G networks, should address this. If MMS takes off in the same way as SMS, then this may become a reality for many users sooner than expected.
Richard Woods, NCCGroup
Expectations pitched too high
Wap is suffering from a crisis in confidence because expectations were set so high. People had become familiar with using the Internet with reasonable page download speeds, and thought that the wireless version would be a similar experience. This perception was unwisely encouraged by the operators. These expectations are hopelessly unrealistic.
If we roll the clock back to the beginning of widespread use of the Internet, download speeds were awful. This is where we now are with mobile content, although this is changing. Today's networks are optimised for voice, not data, which is much more demanding on the network. Add the constraints of a small device with limited battery power and vastly different screen capabilities, and you have a recipe for frustrating interactions with your service provider.
So it is not really Wap's fault. With the next generation of networks being rolled out in the next two years, advances in technology promising to address the constraints described above, and exciting new applications, you can look forward to viewing a clip of David Beckham's latest goal on your mobile device, although perhaps not quite in time for the next World Cup.
David Hughes, Deloitte & Touche
Where are the capable handsets?
End-users have been slow to take up Wap largely because of disappointment in the service. I would argue that this is the result of a gap between the consumer's understanding of the service and the reality.
Wap was never designed to be the mobile Internet, nor could the handsets that existed at its launch support all the bells and whistles functionality of the Internet.
Wap was also used as a bellwether technology to measure the success of future next-generation services. Again, this was a hugely inaccurate way to determine 3G's success.
The widespread use of handheld devices with true browser capability will not happen until the launch of 3G and its enhanced mobile services.
As yet, we have not been shown anything with nearly enough functionality. Instead, there are a growing number of 2.5G handsets, such as the Sony Treo, which are close to supporting the planned services. However, I believe that we are at least 12 months away from handsets with true browser capability.
Brian Marshall, AMS Europe
