The problem:With the low take-up of Wap mobile technology, how long
do you think it will be before there is widespread use of handheld
devices with true browser capability, to fully use the Internet on
the move?
The answer:
Screen size and price are key
This market has proved hard to predict, and if the mobile phone
companies knew the answer, they probably would not tell us. Wap
(Wireless Application Protocol) has several problems, the most
obvious being a screen so small that it is like reading information
from tickertape.
Moving up to a personal digital assistant (PDA)-type screen is OK
for text that is read sequentially, but newspapers do not publish
in this format because readers want to scan and then select. The
same usability is achievable with a PC screen. So we need devices
that are light and small enough for easy portability - say a tablet
with an A5-sized screen - for portable browsing to be attractive.
If the technology for that is available, then the other question is
how much the mobile companies will charge us for the experience. I
suspect it will be seen as "niche" and priced accordingly.
Roger Marshall, Elite
Wap is not the only route
The
Cranfield/Microsoft workforce agility survey conducted in spring
2001 found adoption of mobile Internet to be about 23% last year. A
further 36% of organisations planned to use mobile Internet access
by mid-2003. Given that GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) is now
available and mobile Internet devices are becoming easier to use,
we are likely to see its steady growth.
In the short term, much of the growth in business use of mobile
devices is likely to come from SMS and standard Internet access -
such as using Internet Explorer on a PDA - rather than from Wap.
SMS has plenty of business potential to deliver at low cost.
Compared with Wap, mobile Web browsers provide access to richer
online content combined with remote access to the office. Our
survey found mobile phone usage to be more than 90% while PDA usage
was 40%, so many business users already have the technology to do
this.
Over the longer term, it is not clear what distinctive value Wap
has to offer: 3G will bring major changes, although pricing and the
timing of its roll out will determine its uptake. Other mobile
standards, such as Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) will also be
competing for the limelight.
Christopher Hemingway, Cranfield
Trading up set to start next year
The low
take-up of Wap results from the saturation of the mobile phone
market and low churn of handhelds, and the failure of the major
providers to offer any compelling reasons for people to trade up
and pay more. Security issues, accessibility and general
techno-fatigue have resulted in people not rushing to be early
adopters.
This will all change next year, however, when natural wastage
starts to really kick in and begins to coincide with genuine
advances in technology and accessibility. By the end of 2003, the
new wave of really useful handheld devices will be on the streets
and people will start to realise the true potential of these
advances.
Hugh Macken, Certus
Usability and 'killer' app needed
Usability will be
the deciding factor for when Internet on the move becomes a
reality, possibly combined with a "killer" application. Wap did not
live up to early expectations, as the "Internet on the move" was
not the Internet that everyone had started to get used to.
Wap is useful for specific areas and is being rolled out as an
underlying protocol. However, small screens, low bandwidth, raised
expectations and limited uses have minimised its impact.
It is worth remembering that the Internet did not have global
impact until the browser became the killer application. SMS text
messaging has exploded in a short space of time simply because it
is usable and meets expectations.
How long it will be before "realistic" mobile Internet arrives
depends on bandwidth, hardware and usability. Handset developments,
combined with developments in 2.5G and 3G networks, should address
this. If MMS takes off in the same way as SMS, then this may become
a reality for many users sooner than expected.
Richard Woods, NCCGroup
Expectations pitched too high
Wap is
suffering from a crisis in confidence because expectations were set
so high. People had become familiar with using the Internet with
reasonable page download speeds, and thought that the wireless
version would be a similar experience. This perception was unwisely
encouraged by the operators. These expectations are hopelessly
unrealistic.
If we roll the clock back to the beginning of widespread use of the
Internet, download speeds were awful. This is where we now are with
mobile content, although this is changing. Today's networks are
optimised for voice, not data, which is much more demanding on the
network. Add the constraints of a small device with limited battery
power and vastly different screen capabilities, and you have a
recipe for frustrating interactions with your service provider.
So it is not really Wap's fault. With the next generation of
networks being rolled out in the next two years, advances in
technology promising to address the constraints described above,
and exciting new applications, you can look forward to viewing a
clip of David Beckham's latest goal on your mobile device, although
perhaps not quite in time for the next World Cup.
David Hughes, Deloitte & Touche
Where are the capable handsets?
End-users
have been slow to take up Wap largely because of disappointment in
the service. I would argue that this is the result of a gap between
the consumer's understanding of the service and the reality.
Wap was never designed to be the mobile Internet, nor could the
handsets that existed at its launch support all the bells and
whistles functionality of the Internet.
Wap was also used as a bellwether technology to measure the success
of future next-generation services. Again, this was a hugely
inaccurate way to determine 3G's success.
The widespread use of handheld devices with true browser capability
will not happen until the launch of 3G and its enhanced mobile
services.
As yet, we have not been shown anything with nearly enough
functionality. Instead, there are a growing number of 2.5G
handsets, such as the Sony Treo, which are close to supporting the
planned services. However, I believe that we are at least 12 months
away from handsets with true browser capability.
Brian Marshall, AMS Europe