Depression in the telecoms industry means the Communication
Management Association's annual conference - TMA 2002 - is likely
to be a sombre affair, writes Antony Savvas.
A severe bout of market reality is expected to hit this year's TMA
telecoms convention in Brighton on 21-23 October, but attendees are
being promised plenty of ideas about how they can guide their IT
departments through recession. This year, for the first time in
recent memory, the TMA show will not take over the huge Brighton
Centre: it will be housed in the nearby, rather smaller Metropole
and Grand hotels - a stark illustration of how troubled the
telecoms sector is.
The 1990s saw TMA's fortunes rise with the telecoms boom, and by
the end of the decade visitors could look forward to meeting plenty
of contacts among a 25,000-plus attendees. This year, the
organisers would probably be happy to see half that number.
While the debate over how much business is generated from stand
space seems to have been going on since time immemorial, it is
unquestionably the case that telecoms users are no longer spending
big, and instead are attempting to get more out of what they
already have.
The dotcom crash has created a backlash against any technology or
business service that does not make money quickly, and suppliers of
telecom technologies are being hit hard.
The situation in telecoms is illustrated by the state of the third
generation (3G) mobile market. This spring at Cebit, Europe's most
important technology show, Nokia, Motorola and Ericsson all
promised major progress this autumn when it came to operators
having networks that could use their 3G phones. Nokia even put a
date on it - 26 September was to be the day 3G-ready operators
would be unveiled. Instead, the firm announced details of its first
3G phone that could work on both standard GSM and 3G networks, as
well as GPRS networks, and which would be "trialled" on the hugely
important 3G network of Sonera in Finland. Big deal.
In the UK, Hutchison recently announced it was to start trials in
the UK of its fledgling 3G network using a few hundred "friendly"
users; in other words, staff and a few suppliers. Users could be
excused for wondering what the operators and suppliers have been
trialling for the past few years, since the 3G licenses were
awarded to the operators.
It is perhaps user cynicism rather than a lack of money and time
that the TMA organisers - and other technology shows - have to
overcome when it comes to visitor numbers. The regular big TMA
conference that ran alongside the show, at which users and
suppliers met to hear keynote speeches, is now no more as a result
of show's organiser, the Communications Management Association
(CMA), deciding that smaller, "more intimate" gatherings addressing
key issues are more appropriate.
Having attended the conference myself in recent years, and have
seen the rapidly dwindling attendance, the CMA should be applauded
for trying something different, even though the decision has partly
been forced upon it. The conference takes place over the first two
days of the three-day event and is streamed through four key areas
led by analyst groups and keynote speakers. The Yankee Group will
lead the discussions on "mobilising the workforce", with research
on mobile e-mail, sales force automation and wireless customer
relationship management systems.
Giga Information Group is presenting a section on "ICT valuation,
justification and prioritisation", to help attendees plan, quantify
and sell IT and telecoms projects to the board. Butler Group is
heading a forum on Web services which, Butler Group chairman Martin
Butler says, will represent a £90bn industry by the end of this
decade. It will explore the technologies, architectures and
suppliers currently active in the sector, and the outlook for their
adoption.
Butler Group has made the evolution of Web services a key area for
its research recently, but it is realistic about the likely level
of adoption in the current economic climate.
The final conference stream is being led by the Information
Assurance Advisory Council and Rand Europe, and will cover
"managing information risk". It will look at security and risk
management as an integral part of an organisation's business
processes.
CMA chief executive Glenn Powell says, "We have made significant
changes to the format and content of this year's conference, and we
believe this will significantly improve the value of the sessions
to delegates." Powell also says it will be cheaper to attend the
conference this year, as it is no longer seen as a "major profit
centre" for CMA. Powell believes 100 delegates at each stream would
be a good turnout.
However, those not attending the conference will still get plenty
from the show, as there are various other features.
Broadband Britain and business online, billing, outsourcing, mobile
technologies, security and business continuity, and Web services
will be covered at special pavilions and "hot spot" areas of the
exhibition, with supplier representatives giving presentations to
visitors.
Visitors can expect between 130 and 150 exhibitors, including
Alcatel, O2, Telewest, and Vodafone.
Explaining the move from the Brighton Centre, Powell says, "The
main thing is to get people there to network. This is more
important than having massive two-storey stands." The event will
also provide an opportunity for the special interest groups formed
by CMA members to meet; they cover areas such as billing, business
continuity, and outsourcing.
There will also be the popular Comms Skills Fair, for those looking
for the scarce jobs still on offer, and a chance to meet those
firms that are getting ready to come out of recession.
So that's what TMA can offer over three days in Brighton, but how
does the CMA see the state of the industry?
Powell says, "If we listened to the forecasters and analysts -
largely the same people who stoked up the dotcom fiasco - we would
believe the industry is on the verge of collapse, with an expensive
infrastructure that nobody wants. There have been difficulties over
the huge investment in 3G and the problems of some of corporate
America's larger companies, but the CMA generally takes a more
positive view.
"There is no doubt traffic is growing, as IP traffic is said to be
doubling on networks every 13 weeks. Customer demand for always-on,
high-speed capacity in the local loop is growing rapidly in nearly
every country in the OECD [Organisation for Economic Cooperation
and Development]. In addition, there are already signs that the
much-vaunted glut of fibre in the core networks will soon become a
shortage."
The perceived financial instability of telecoms suppliers in light
of the problems at KPNQwest, WorldCom, Global Crossing and others
has led to the CMA trying to develop solutions to ensure business
continuity. Powell says, "The CMA would like to see the creation of
an 'at-risk' register that would allow customers to make fully
informed choices about the short- and long-term viability - service
and financial - of suppliers when making significant buying
decisions."
Powell adds that the CMA plans to devise a best practice guide for
customers on how to avoid risk.
As for the progress of Broadband Britain, with prime minister Tony
Blair aiming to have the UK at the top of the e-commerce tree by
2005, Powell says the Government may have to offer subsidies to
ensure the necessary networks are built. He says, "We believe that
the analogue local loop will remain a bottleneck and e-commerce
will not take off until it is uncorked, either by legislation or
regulation.
"The aim has been to extend broadband access beyond the urban areas
to the rest of the country, and to modify suppliers' business
models so they can reach beyond cherry-picking the large
corporations. If that takes a state subsidy, so be it. The cost can
be recouped over time through increased tax revenues. Left to
itself, the market won't provide it."
This view is backed up by the CMA's annual Communications Market UK
survey, which drew responses from more than 400 CMA members. Of
these, 78% said the Government should intervene to make universal
access to broadband a reality.
Regarding the increased interest the Government is showing in
electronic communications - partly driven by the "war on terrorism"
- the CMA is not rabidly against this interest and is not part of
the vociferous privacy lobby, but there are provisos. Powell says,
"In principle, the CMA believes that it is right for government to
seek lawful means to develop mechanisms for detecting security
risks and crime. National security should not be negotiable and
crime must not be able to flourish and prosper. However, such
legislation must be proportionate to the threat, and must be
carefully and effectively regulated."
On combating fraud in e-commerce and the promotion of the greater
use of electronic signatures, Powell says some basic human traits
first have to be overcome if the current weak encryption and
e-signature market is to grow.
He says, "The problem with encryption technology is that it
normally requires a specific act or series of acts on the part of
the sender to encrypt a message, and the recipient must share the
same technology. Both these requirements are powerful
disincentives, on the human level, to use encryption as a normal
mode of transmission for everyday use."
All these issues will come to the surface at TMA 2002 in Brighton
and it is probably worth attending, if only to see whether the
industry has genuinely taken a reality check.
What's at TMA 2002?
- TMA 2002 runs from Monday 21 October to Tuesday 22 October in
Brighton
- It has four industry themes: mobilising the workforce; ICT
valuation, justification and prioritisation; Web services; and
managing information risk.
- There will be a skills fair, with job opportunities
promised
- Technology and business "hot spot" pavilion areas will be
situated across the exhibition - including areas covering business
online, billing, outsourcing, contact media, mobile and Web
services
- The Communications Industry Dinner (Monday 21 October), is a
black-tie affair at the Grand Hotel with Ben Verwaayen, chief
executive officer of BT Group, the keynote speaker
- The Gala Dinner (Tuesday 22 October) is a more informal affair
with Ian Hislop, editor of Private Eye and team captain on Have I
Got News For You?, the keynote speaker
More details on the show can be found at
www.tma2002.com/What is the CMA?
The Communications Management
Association (CMA) was previously the Telecommunications Managers
Association, but it changed its name a few years ago to reflect the
fact its members were no longer exclusively telecoms managers,
mainly because the voice and data industries are converging.
The membership is made up of individuals working for both suppliers
and corporate users. Up to the 1980s, most members worked for BT,
when there was barely any competition in the UK telecoms market.
Privatisation of BT led to smaller competitors springing up and a
more diversified membership.
The annual show in Brighton, now in its 35th year, has held onto
its TMA branding despite its sponsor's name change because it is a
show people know, and it would have been marketing suicide to
change the name of an established show in the current economic
climate.