Enterprises can now profitably deploy virtual private networks
(VPNs) and wireless local area network (LANs), according to analyst
group Gartner, which has just published its 2002 Hype Cycle of
Emerging Technologies.
The report shows that biometrics, Web services and grid computing
are the most hyped technologies.
"The 2002 Hype Cycle reflects the bursting of the technology
bubble," said Alexander Linden, research director of emerging
trends and technology at Gartner.
"There are surprisingly few new technologies entering the Hype
Cycle or approaching the peak. Far more technologies are stuck in
the trough of disillusionment and several of these are unlikely to
emerge from this stage quickly."
Gartner said that peer-to-peer computing, WAP and wireless web
services, location sensing, speech recognition on desktops and
e-payments are among the technologies that are floundering.
It has taken VPNs more than four years to mature into commercially
viable products, said Linden. "There are now real cost savings over
a three-year planning horizon," he said. "There are still
reliability and security issues, but they are nothing special
anymore."
Speech recognition in call centres is a technology that users
should investigate and plan for, said Gartner. "It is a good
business cost saving technology," added Linden.
A bank or telecoms company might have 1,000 different types of
inquiry and should start by developing speech recognition for 10
services, migrating to between 20 and 50 over a year. "In ten
years' time, half could be fully automated," said Linden.
Web services have been over-hyped, said Gartner, although Linden
thought in-house Web services should take off quickly.
"Public Web services are a different matter," he said. "There are
issues of security, trust, compliance and reliability to be sorted
out."
Gartner also suggested it would be two to five years before
identity services, such as Microsoft's Passport initiative and the
Sun Microsystems-led Liberty Alliance, would be accepted for
high-value transactions. Privacy and security concerns would hold
back acceptance, said Linden.
Gartner's Hype Cycle:Technology trigger: A breakthrough invention or product
launch that stimulates industry interest.
Peak of inflated expectations: A period of unrealistic
expectations and failed deployments as technology is pushed to its
limit.
Trough of disillusionment: The technology falls from favour
as expectations are dashed.
Slope of enlightenment: Focused experiments and hard work
lead to an understanding of the technology's applicability, risks
and benefits. Off-the-shelf tools and methodologies ease the
development and application integration process.
Plateau of productivity: The real-world benefits of the
technology are demonstrated and accepted.