Technology intelligence provider IDC has been considering the
uptake scenarios for Windows XP Home and Windows XP Professional
for the past several months. In an extract from IDC's Windows XP:
Huge uptake potential; little alternative choice report, CW360.com
presents its key findings.
Simply stated, IDC sees Windows XP as quickly absorbing the
momentum that Windows 98 and Windows Me have gained as well as the
momentum that Windows 2000 Professional is experiencing in the
market.
Another trend that IDC expects to see is a significant shift among
business users from Windows 9x products over to Windows XP
Professional, marking a parting of company between consumer and
business users. This trend will be particularly important for the
acceleration of Windows XP Professional.
However, at the top line, IDC does not see Windows XP as creating a
significant surge in Windows COE (common operating environment) new
licence shipments; instead, we see this as a product that will
quickly replace existing product shipments, carrying forward the
growth curves that have been underway in the Windows COE market for
some time.
Coming into play are a number of factors convincing IDC to project
such fast uptake of the new product. Those factors include the
following:
Consumers will have little alternative choice
Since
consumers are effectively at the mercy of what is available on
retail shelves or offered on the large PC OEMs' Web sites, they
will find themselves facing little choice at the computer store.
Because hardware OEMs will rapidly switch from pre-installing
Windows Me to Windows XP Home because of better reliability and
stability (which translates into fewer support calls), users will
quickly find themselves able to purchase Windows XP Home- based
systems only. An interesting side effect happens as a result of
this trend, however. Small business users that purchase through the
retail channel may find that stores will not stock both Windows XP
Home and Windows XP Professional systems.
To lower their inventory costs, they are likely to stock only
systems having Windows XP Home. Business users may shortly face a
situation in which they must manually install Windows XP
Professional or end up using Windows XP Home on their networks.
Microsoft contends that the retail channel will probably stock both
versions on preinstalled systems. Also, Microsoft has suggested the
possibility that a Windows XP-Home-XP- Professional upgrade may
become available, but if this emerges, it won't be free.
Windows XP is perceived as a dot-release over Windows 2000
Professional
Business users will have a mixed reaction to
Windows XP Professional. They will probably see this product as a
dot-release, or minor upgrade, to Windows 2000 Professional that
includes cosmetic improvements and some improved functionality but
no fundamental structural changes. This upgrade will present a
scenario more like the Windows NT 3.51-Windows NT 4.0 migration -
as opposed to the disruptive Windows NT 4.0-Windows 2000
upgrade.
Further, a Windows XP client system can be easily supported by a
Windows 2000 support specialist, given some minor incremental
training. This means that Windows XP Professional won't create the
kind of impediments to adoption that Windows 2000 Professional
introduced. Nevertheless, this same dot-release perception will not
necessarily be a stimulus to business user adoption.
Licensing terms will force users to the most current Microsoft
COEs
With Microsoft's clear message delivered by its
Licensing 6.0 terms, business users are now strongly encouraged to
purchase the most current COE licences offered by Microsoft. If
they do so, Windows XP will see a faster uptake than is
historically seen with other new Microsoft client operating
environments. But for many organisations that already began moving
forward with Windows 2000, IDC believes that the process of testing
product and rolling out Windows XP Professional won't be a
priority.
A more likely scenario is that organisations will purchase Windows
XP Professional licences to satisfy Microsoft's new licensing
requirements but continue to roll out Windows 2000 Professional
under the "downgrade" licence included with each new Microsoft
product. These organisations are likely to continue to use Windows
2000 Professional until the systems are obsolete and need to be
replaced or a compelling reason emerges to deploy Windows XP
Professional. For other organisations that have held back their
rollout of Windows 2000, a shift to Windows XP Professional may
alleviate some of the porting issues of older applications to
Windows 2000 Professional.
A shift from consumer to business versions of Windows COEs will
take place
Another trend is shown by IDC's uptake
projections: a market shift from "consumer" versions of the Windows
COE family to "professional" versions. IDC believes that volume
licensing terms (not available for Windows XP Home) and other
benefits of moving to Windows XP Professional will encourage
business users to move to the professional grade products, while
most consumers will best be served by moving to Windows XP Home.
This trend represents a significant shift for use models within
Microsoft's customer base. In the past, both business users and
consumers used the Windows 9x product family. For the first time
ever, a clear shipment picture will emerge from Microsoft for
business versus consumer customers.
Conclusion
IDC believes that Windows XP represents one
of the most important products that Microsoft has ever launched,
one that will ultimately touch hundreds of millions of users.
Neither consumer nor business users will be able to avoid the new
operating system unless they stop purchasing new Windows COE
licences in the future or abandon Windows COEs entirely and use an
alternate product.
Given Microsoft's dominance in the client operating environment
market and the clear message delivered by Licensing 6.0 terms that
business users will stay current or face higher costs down the
road, it's likely that Windows XP will start showing up in
corporate accounts within a few months of the release of the
product. A six-month lag prior to any significant adoption, as was
seen with Windows 2000, is an unlikely prospect. Further, the
availability of volume licensing terms for as few as five systems
will encourage business users to purchase Windows through
non-retail channels.
IDC is a key provider of technology intelligence, industry
analysis, market data, and strategic and tactical guidance to
providers and users of information technology
Further information
www.idc.com