Processors: Intel's 64 bit launch will force users and
manufacturers to review performance and price, especially as some
analysts are advising users to wait for the next version.
Intel's Itanium chip marks the dawn of a new era of cheaper
midrange computing as the other 64-bit suppliers are forced to
react to the chip giant's mass-market economics.
The first fruit of the Intel Architecture 64 (IA-64) was officially
launched last week, following a clutch of announcements of servers
based on Itanium from IBM, Dell, SGI and the Itanium chip's
co-developer Hewlett-Packard.
Throughout the development of the processor, Intel has stressed
that it is just a forerunner to the IA-64 line but, following these
announcements, anyone could be forgiven for believing that these
were more than mere development chips.
Although most companies are unlikely to deploy mission-critical
applications on new IA64 systems until the next version arrives in
2002, Intel's 64-bit milestone could turn the midrange computing
market, where Sun, IBM, Compaq and HP currently dominate, on its
head.
The next version of Itanium, currently known by its development
name of McKinley, will have the support of Windows 2002, as will a
host of 64-bit applications running on Windows, HP-UX Unix, Linux,
Novell's Modesto and any other platform that has been remodelled
for the environment.
The chips are intended to be relatively low cost and compatible
with programs for previous chips through emulation. This does not
mean they will be cheap, however, with prices per processor bought
in 1,000 chip lots expected to be $4,227 (£2,818) for the top end
800MHz Itanium with 4Mbytes of tertiary cache and $1,980 with
2Mbytes of cache.
The slower 733MHz chip with 2Mbytes of cache will cost $1,177 but
reports say that the 4Mbyte version will also cost $4,227 which
seems rather high.
These prices are only a guide because it is the cost of the
complete server that will help to determine the future sales.
Although no suppliers have yet announced prices for servers or
workstations, there is no doubt that these will be pitched to give
the current 64-bit server manufacturers cause for concern.
Most have insured themselves against whatever the future holds by
adopting Itanium alongside their current ranges. Sun Microsystems
is the notable exception, and Sun's user base will be the main
battleground .
Sun will argue that the Itanium is Intel's first attempt at a
64-bit architecture. Other 64-bit chips have been around since 1992
in the form of Mips-based midrange and mainframe systems or Compaq
(formerly Digital Equipment) Alphaservers.
Sun, IBM and Hewlett-Packard did not enter the midrange server
market until about 1996-7 but that still gives them a four- or
five-year development lead on Intel.
It will be crucial for the Itanium servers to prove their
reliability first time out and Intel claims that to date it has
already pre-released 40,000 processors for development
systems.
Graham Fisher, senior analyst with Bloor Research, said a battle of
words will eventually give way to deeds in the form of price
cutting.
"Ultimately, Intel-based 64-bit servers will make an impact on
Sun's market share but when this will happen depends on the
availability of Itanium software, he said.
"With McKinley expected some time next year, I would not expect to
see any serious price-cutting until then."
Eric Doyle and Daniel Thomas