The general availability of Windows 7 next month will not entice
users to upgrade their PCs.
George Shiffler, research director at Gartner, said, "We don't
expect the release of Windows 7 to significantly influence PC
demand at year-end," Shiffler said. "At best, Windows 7 may
generate a modest bump in home demand and possibly some added
demand among small businesses. However, we aren't expecting most
larger businesses, governments and educational institutions to
express strong demand for the new operating system until late 2010.
We're actually more concerned that vendors will overestimate the
initial demand for Windows 7 and end up carrying excess inventories
into 2010."
Gartner does not envision global shipments experiencing growth
this year except as a very best-case scenario. PC units contracted
4.4% in the first half of 2009 compared to the first half of 2008.
Worldwide PC shipments are on pace to reach 285 million units in
2009, a 2% decline from 2008 shipments of 291 million, according to
the latest forecast by Gartner.
The decline is less than previous estimates, which project an
11% decrease in PC shipments.