IDC has predicted that although worldwide PC shipments
over the next two years are unlikely to match figures for 2003, the
forecast is still one of double-digit growth through
2005.
Worldwide PC shipments are now expected to grow 11.4% in 2004,
and 11.2% in 2005, compared with a 11.7% growth rate in 2003 with
154.5 million units.
"This is not the growth rate of the late 1990s, but it's still
pretty healthy," said Roger Kay, vice president of client computing
for IDC. "The late 1990s was a period of accumulation and we're now
past that point."
Beyond 2005, growth in worldwide PC shipments is projected to
slow to about 8% through 2008. Shipment value is expected to grow
by more than 5% for the next two years, followed by growth of
roughly 3% through 2008.
Interest in laptops and wireless technology, from both the
consumer and enterprise sectors, is a driving factor in the
market's growth worldwide, but particularly in the US and Western
Europe.
"Wireless is becoming a check-box item for businesses," said
Kay. "Part of the reason for that is because enterprises are having
to deal with employees who are doing wireless on their own at home,
which does raise some security issues for companies."
In 2004, 172.1 million units are expected to ship worldwide,
with the US accounting for 58.5 million of those units. The
worldwide commercial sector in 2004 can expect shipments of 109.9
million units, a growth rate of 12.1%, while the consumer sector is
forecast to have 62.1 million units shipped on a 10.2% yearly
growth rate.
US demand for laptops is projected to rise by 30% over the next
two years, growth that will more than offset an expected decline in
public sector spending, partly as a result of this year's US
presidential election.
"Election years throw funny things into IT spending projections.
For example, questions about future tax polices become an issue,"
Kay said, adding that spending in the government sector is expected
to drop, especially in the areas of education and federal
spending.
In other regions, both consumer and business demand in Western
Europe will remain strong into 2005 because of rapid portables
adoption and improving price points. "Western Europe is forecast to
be slightly stronger than the US in 2004, although that will, most
likely, reverse in 2005," Kay said.
IDC projected growth in the PC market in Japan, which is
expected to rise from 2.8% in 2003 to around 6% in 2004 and 2005,
while the Asia-Pacific region in general will remain in double
digits throughout the period.
"China is really the engine in the region, although India is
becoming very interesting and also showing strong growth," Kay
said. "The Asia-Pacific market was under-penetrated but is now in
full swing."
Laura Rohde writes for IDG News
Service