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Market research company Dataquest said PC shipments would reach 127.3 million units this year, up 1.8% from last year. Next year's shipments are forecast to grow by 7%.
The numbers indicate some recovery in spending on PCs and are an improvement on the 4.2% decline in shipments that occurred in 2001. However, they are a far cry from the double-digit growth in PC shipments experienced in the late 1990s.
PC buyers are still concerned about the economy, according to George Shiffler, principal analyst for Dataquest's computing platforms and economics research. "There is growth but not strong growth and it's a pretty marked slowdown from 1999 to 2000, when users went on a year-2000 buying binge," Shiffler said. PC shipment growth in 2000 was 13.6%, he noted.
"The PCs bought during the buying binge are due to be replaced, but the sticky wicket is that users may be hanging on to them longer than they normally would because they are worried about the economy," said Shiffler.
Although prices are falling on PC components and peripherals, Dataquest said there was no single compelling technology working to overcome general economic fears.
For example, rewriteable DVD prices are likely to decline but the war among vendors over drive formats is creating uncertainty in the market and undercutting the attraction of falling prices.
This lack of an attractive, standout technology is putting the brakes on growth in PC shipments for the fourth quarter this year, which includes the end-of-year buying season, according to Dataquest.
The company forecasts worldwide PC shipments to be 35.1 million units in the fourth quarter, a relatively weak 1.5% increase from last year's fourth quarter.
Financial and technology issues will curb holiday purchases especially in developed countries such as the US and Japan, and other countries with high PC penetration in the home, Dataquest said.