Businesses need to check theircontingency plansand improve
home-working support systems asswine
flulooks poised to reduce UK GDP by 3% this
year.
An influential group of economists says the H1N1 virus could
knock a further 1.9% off 2010 GDP levels.
Ernst and Young's ITEM Club made its predictions based on the
assumption of a six-month pandemic starting August 2009, a 50%
infection rate and a 0.4% mortality rate. Its
report predicts thousands of employees will take time off work
because they or their dependents are ill, posing a "serious risk to
the economy".
The virus could have a stifling effect on demand, with travel,
restaurants and tourism services likely to be hit. The ITEM
economists say it will hit the economy hard "just as it could have
been
starting to recover from the credit crunch". General
uncertainty over the state of the economy will lead to postponement
of investment decisions.
The group suggests companies should make sure staff are able to
work from home, and make the most of technologies such as
video conferencing.
It adds that retail and industrial units should carefully review
their stock levels and supply chains.
More generally, it predicts that the route back to economic
growth lies in overseas business, not domestic growth.
Picture by Jonathan
Hordle/Rex Features