Gartner,
IDC and
iSuppli each reported PC market
declines last week, with iSuppli stating that the segment will
suffer its first decline since the dotcom bubble burst and Gartner
and IDC stating that recent declines, while still significant, are
less harsh than previously anticipated, writes Suzanne Deffree,
managing editor, News, at
Electronic
News.
According to iSuppli, the global PC market will suffer a 4%
contraction in
unit shipments in 2009, forced by a combination of falling IT
spending and an anticipated 18.1% decline in sales of desktops. PC
shipments are expected to drop to 287.3 million units in 2009, down
from 299.2 million in 2008. ISuppli previously forecasted 0.7%
growth in PC shipments for the year.
"An annual decline in unit shipments is highly unusual in the PC
market," said Matthew Wilkins, iSuppli's principal analyst for
compute platforms, in a statement.
"Even in weak years, PC unit shipments typically rise by
single-digit percentages. The last decline - in 2001 - was a 5.1%
decrease in unit shipments due to the extraordinary impact of the
dotcom bust, which caused inflated IT spending levels from the
previous years to collapse."
ISuppli reported optimism for notebook PC shipments in 2009,
stating that it expects shipments to rise by 11.7% to reach 155.97
million units, up from 139.6 million in 2008. Notebook PC shipments
will exceed those of desktops on an annual basis for the first time
ever in 2009, the company said.
"Mobility is winning out in the PC market," Wilkins said.
"Businesses and consumers continue to embrace notebook PCs because
of the benefits of mobility and the near-equal performance and
feature set. This is cutting into desktop PC shipments."
Q2 and the second half
Looking specifically to the now closed June quarter, both
Gartner and IDC reported Q2 declines but noted that the declines
were not as steep as had been expected.
Gartner reported that worldwide PC shipments totalled 68.1
million units in Q2, a 5% year-over-year decline. That performance
was significantly better than the 9.8% shipment decline Gartner had
forecast for the quarter in June.
"In the first quarter of 2009, inventory restocking played a
major role in shipment growth, but this was less of a factor in the
second quarter," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at
Gartner, in a statement.
"Though the market was still in decline, the better than
expected results can be interpreted as a small sign of a PC market
recovery in terms of shipment volumes in some regions. PC shipments
in Asia/Pacific and the US were better than our expectation, while
shipments in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region
indicated ongoing weakness."
IDC also noted that Q2 global PC shipments came in ahead of
expectations, "lessening fears over the extent of the PC market
slump". According to IDC, worldwide PC shipments were down 3.1%
from Q2 2008, compared with IDC's expectations for a decline of
6.3%. All regions either met or surpassed expectations, and
portable PCs continued to be the primary driver of volume and
growth, IDC reported.
"These results are a very positive indicator for the second half
of the year," said Loren Loverde, program director for IDC's
Tracker Program, in a statement.
"We are seeing continued demand from consumers and limited
impact from supply chain factors such as inventory balancing. New
product launches in the second half of the year, combined with
seasonal growth and greater economic confidence resulting from
factors such as government stimulus, a more liquid housing market,
relatively stable stock market and interest rates, and progress in
the auto and financial industries, should support the expected
return to growth by year-end."
Still, IDC said that while the market outperformed expectations
for a second consecutive quarter in Q2, the lack of commercial
activity remains a drag on growth. The commercial segment remains
more conservative with spending, focusing on other priorities and
preserving cash. As a result, the segment has not been as motivated
by falling prices and new portable designs as the consumer segment,
IDC said.
"The market continues to rely on consumer purchases, with a
substantial weakness in the commercial space," Bob O'Donnell, IDC's
vice-president of clients and displays, said in the company's
statement. "We expect to see more of the same as we enter the busy
shopping season of the second half of the year. In the longer term,
an expected recovery in the commercial segment should boost growth
in 2011."
Looking to the second half, iSuppli said shipments are expected
to rise sequentially by 11% in Q3 and 8.9% in Q4.
"Although our expectation is for
shipments to rise vigorously in the third quarter on a
sequential basis, conditions remain weak compared with 2008,"
Wilkins said.
On a year-over-year basis, Q3 shipments will be down 6.5%,
iSuppli estimated. However,
Q4 shipments are expected to rise by 3.6% compared to the same
quarter last year, the company said, noting that the trend will
continue in 2010, with shipments rising on a year-over-year basis
during every quarter of the year. For all of 2010, iSuppli
estimated global PC shipments will rise by 4.7% from 2009.