Analysts at Gartner are now predicting that sales of PCs will
grow during Q4, but reckon Windows 7 will only have a "very modest"
influence.
The latest forecast by Gartner is more optimistic than the
previous forecasts in March, when it estimated unit shipments would
fall 9.2% this year, and in May, when it predicted that sales could
decline by 6.6%.
Modest growth expected in the Christmas quarter may help to halt
the sales decline for the year to 6% and will lead to a relative
rebound in 2010, when the market is expected to climb 10.3%
year-on-year.
George Shiffler, research director at Gartner, said the consumer
sector will be "helping to power the market's recovery" in 2010 and
2011, but Windows 7 will not be the driver.
"Although the buzz surrounding Windows 7 has generally been
quite positive, we don't expect the market to significantly deviate
from its normal seasonal trends in reaction to its release," he
said.
Unless Microsoft launches an effective, major marketing
campaign, users will adopt the new OS as they would when buying a
new PC, he added.
"As for professional users, we still expect them to put off
adopting the new OS for at least a year until they have fully
tested their applications against it," said Shiffler.
The Global Technology Distribution Council - comprising some of
the worlds largest wholesalers - this month said the market on this
side of the Atlantic was not yet over the worst of the
recession.
Ingram Micro president Greg Spierkel warned recently that
business in Europe was "getting worse with every passing
month".
"Everyone is trying to be realistic, but unemployment figures
keep going up and spending is being pulled back flat is clearly the
new up," he said.
Milko van Duijl, president at Lenovo, told MicroScope that
demand in the US was stabilising, "but for Europe its tough now".
When asked if he expected an upturn this year, he replied:
"Personally I do not."
This story originally appeared in
MicroScope.