By the next ten years, more than half of mobile voice
traffic will be carried on end-to-end voice over Internet Protocol
(VoIP) networks instead of traditional mobile networks according to
a recent survey by Gartner.
The analysis firm predicts that mobile portal VoIP offered by
third-party application-based providers will poses a huge and
direct challenge to the $692.6 billion global mobile voice market.
It believes that over time,
traditional network-based mobile carriers face the real prospect of
losing a major slice of their voice traffic and revenue to new
non-infrastructure players that use VoIP.
However, Gartner adds that despite what it calls a significant
potential, conditions for the rapid expansion in the use of mobile
VoIP are not yet right and are not likely to become right for at
least five years and perhaps as long as eight years.
One of the
key drivers for the mobile VoIP adoption identified by Gartner
is the advent of 4G networks such as
WiMAX and Long Term Evolution (LTE), and increased use of
smartphones with open operating systems. If these networks truly
realise their potential, Gartner postulates that it is conceivable
that wireless voice services will be run completely over VoIP.
However Gartner warned that there will also be a number of
factors that will inhibit the adoption of third-party, end-to-end
VoIP services. These include the delay in rolling out 4G networks
because of current economic conditions and also the general plan to
put 4G only in the main cities and build out from there.
Nevertheless, Gartner expects that in five to 10 years time, as 4G
networks become common, mobile VoIP services will have a strong
impact on the communications market.
Commented Gartner research director Tole Hart, “Mass-scale
adoption of end-to-end mobile VoIP calling will not happen until
fourth-generation (4G) networks are fully implemented in 2017. Once
the basic market conditions are in place, transition to mobile
portal VoIP should be fairly rapid because of the inherent
convenience and end-user cost savings. In 10 years time we expect
that 30% of mobile voice traffic will be carried out through
third-party mobile portals, such as Google, Facebook, MySpace and
Yahoo, which will adopt wireless VoIP service as a voice option to
their current communications hub.”