A lack of available
investment capital and limitations within the capacity of telecoms
networks could puncture optimism for the prospects of a key sector
in the mobile computing market.
Over the last couple of years, one of the key
assumptions regarding mobile computing has been that one day all
devices will feature
embedded-3G and embedded-WiMAX mobile broadband
connections.
However a new report from Disruptive Analysis
challenges this theory predicting that the double-whammy of
the credit
and a capacity crunch will dramatically slow the expected high take
take-up.
The research firm suggests that even in three
year’s time, laptops with built-in wireless access will only be
used by 30% of total, active
mobile broadband subscribers globally; by way of contrast,
external USB modems will account for 58%.
Key reasons for the slower-than-anticipated
growth include the global recession impacting notebook purchases;
unfavourable pricing differentials; the limitations of the sales
and support channels for mobile-enabled notebooks; and the typical
two-year monthly contract payment model, which does not fit with
much of the target market for these devices.
However, the good news for the embedded telecoms
players, says Disruptive Analysis, is that in the long term,
embedded mobile broadband will likely overtake separate modems, in
terms of both shipments and the active user base.
By 2014, forecasts the researcher, there will be
150m users of notebooks and the smaller and increasingly popular
netbooks with embedded mobile broadband worldwide. In terms of
device shipments, 100m wireless-enabled laptops will likely be sold
annually by then. However, not all of these will actually be
activated.
Commented the report’s author, Dean Bubley,
“Mobile-embedded notebooks are very elegant in concept – but suffer
from practical and business-model limitations that will restrict
their near-term growth, especially during a period of economic
uncertainty when buyers will be especially
conservative.”
The report also revealed that only 3m so called
Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) will be sold in 2009, although by
2014 this should grow to ten times that figure; by 2012, there will
be 45m users of WiMAX mobile broadband computing devices, 11m of
these will also use 3G or LTE connections in various hybrid or
multimode approaches; the recession and non-availability of credit
will drive a softening of demand for laptops generally, as well as
a focus on value; for most people, built-in 3G or WiMAX is a “nice
to have”, not a “must have”.
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