Worries are developing for the rollout of a key
potential
mobile computing enabler following reports that the recession
is hitting significantly the rollout of WiMAX
technology.
This could not come at a worse time for those behind the WiMAX
standard who have been under increasing pressure from firms who in
a similar efforrt to support future mobile computing applications
have
developed
mobile broadband technology based on other standards .
According to a new survey by Infonetics
Research,
sales of fixed and mobile WiMAX equipment and phones/Ultra Mobile
PCs dropped 21% to $245 million in 3Q08 from 2Q08. Furthermore,
sales are expected to continue to fall throughout 2009.
Infonetics expects the global recession to cause some consumers
and enterprises to postpone WiMAX adoption but argues that demand
for personal broadband services will likely continue to grow. It
predicts that the number of worldwide fixed and mobile WiMAX
subscribers will exceed 76 million in 2011, as demand, albeit
slower, will continue through the recession.
Even though the economic recession has acted as a damper to
total WiMAX rollout, explained Infonetics, fixed WiMAX had already
reached a plateau prior to the economic downturn. The analyst
believes that such technology had displayed a third consecutive
quarter of revenue decline.
By contrast, mobile WiMAX overtook fixed WiMAX spending in the
first quarter of 2008 and now makes up almost three-quarters of
worldwide WiMAX equipment sales.
And in what could be the first sign of a growing trend of the
preference service providers are showing for mobile WiMAX, leading
WiMAX provider leader Alvarion has embarked upon a programme to
migrate its customer base from fixed to mobile.
According to the Infonetics survey, in Q308, Alvarion overtook
Alcatel-Lucent and Motorola in the mobile WiMAX market, having its
best ever quarter for WiMAX revenue. The three companies together
accounted for over 60% of worldwide mobile WiMAX revenue and, with
Samsung, account for nearly 3/4 of all publicly announced mobile
WiMAX customers.
Commented 'rw' Richard Webb,
wireless analyst for Infonetics Research, “With less cash available
for network rollout, and possibly less spectrum being auctioned
until the current financial crisis passes, WiMAX deployment will be
inhibited for the next 12 months. Infonetics expects revenue growth
to return to the overall WiMAX market in 2010, with growth being
driven by mobile WiMAX, as a growing number of WiMAX networks are
being rolled out based on 802.16e, even if initial services will be
fixed CPE-based broadband.
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