Worries are developing for
the rollout of a key potential mobile computing enabler following
reports that the recession is hitting significantly the rollout of
WiMAX technology.
This could not come at a worse time
for those behind the
WiMAX mobile broadband standard who have been under increasing
pressure from firms developing technology based on other standards
to
support future mobile computing applications.
According to a new survey by
Infonetics Research, compared with the second quarter of
2008,
sales of fixed and mobile WiMAX equipment and phones/Ultra Mobile
PCs dropped 21% to $245 million in Q3 . Furthermore, sales are
expected to continue to fall throughout 2009.
Infonetics expects the global
recession to cause some consumers and enterprises to postpone WiMAX
adoption but argues that demand for personal broadband services
will likely continue to grow. It predicts that the number of
worldwide fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers will exceed 76 million
in 2011, as demand, albeit slower, will continue through the
recession.
Even though the economic recession
has acted as a damper to total WiMAX rollout, explained Infonetics,
fixed WiMAX had already reached a plateau prior to the economic
downturn. The analyst believes that such technology had displayed a
third consecutive quarter of revenue decline.
By contrast, mobile WiMAX overtook
fixed WiMAX spending in the first quarter of 2008 and now makes up
almost three-quarters of worldwide WiMAX equipment
sales.
And in what could be the first sign
of a growing trend of the preference service providers are showing
for mobile WiMAX, leading WiMAX provider leader Alvarion has
embarked upon a programme to migrate its customer base from fixed
to mobile.
According to the Infonetics survey,
in Q308, Alvarion overtook Alcatel-Lucent and Motorola in the
mobile WiMAX market, having its best ever quarter for WiMAX
revenue. The three companies together accounted for over 60% of
worldwide mobile WiMAX revenue and, with Samsung, account for
nearly 3/4 of all publicly announced mobile WiMAX
customers.
Commented'rw' Richard
Webb, wireless
analyst for Infonetics Research, “With less cash available for
network rollout, and possibly less spectrum being auctioned until
the current financial crisis passes, WiMAX deployment will be
inhibited for the next 12 months. Infonetics expects revenue growth
to return to the overall WiMAX market in 2010, with growth being
driven by mobile WiMAX, as a growing number of WiMAX networks are
being rolled out based on 802.16e, even if initial services will be
fixed CPE-based broadband."