The recent launch of
Apple’s iPhone 3G along with new smart-phone offerings from
other providers will fuel a steady growth in wireless data revenues
in the US according to the latest predictions by SNL
Kagan.
The analyst predicts
mobile data revenue to
increase by a compound annual growth rate of 16% from $24
billion in 2007 to over $100 billion in 2017, compared to a 5% CAGR
for total wireless service revenue over the same period. Data
subscribers should grow at an average CAGR of 5.8% to 249.5 million
by 2017, comprising 77% of total wireless subscribers. By
comparison, over the same period, SNL Kagan forecasts wireless
subscriber growth to increase by only 2.9% per year on average. By
2017, wireless subscribers will likely reach 90% per capita
penetration.
As the market nears saturation, sales of new data services in
the US will become the primary driver of revenue growth. Messaging
and mobile email will comprise the largest source of mobile data
usage with 62% of wireless subscribers utilising these services by
2017. Mobile web users, growing from 18% of wireless subscribers in
2007 to 52% in 2017, will comprise the second-largest category.
Within other mobile content categories, SNL Kagan expects mobile
video/TV to ramp the fastest, with a 10-year CAGR of 22.5% versus
12.7% for games and 13.1% for music. Between 2010 and 2012,
mobile video/TV usage will get an
extra boost as phones compatible with the ATSC-MH mobile broadcast
TV standard emerge.
"Right now the visible top line growth outlook in wireless is
relatively modest, with declining sub gains and so much pressure on
voice revenue countering the surge in data,” explained SNL Kagan
analysts John Fletcher and Sharon Armbrust. “But we think the
open-endedness of wireless data options, especially related to
location sensitive and personalised mobile commerce and advertising
opportunities, could give wireless a second wind in the not too
distant future. The wireless industry’s biggest growth
opportunities may well be the services we haven’t even seen
yet."