The bandwidth glut, if it ever existed, is officially history
and the world's consumers are facing a bandwidth famine according
to an independent Global Bandwidth Study commissioned by CIP
Technologies.
The study says that
demands for
Internet bandwidth will more than double in two years and grow
by an order of magnitude in five years, placing excessive demands
on current network architectures.
Specifically, CIP predicts that bandwidth demand will exceed 160
Tbits/s by 2010 – an annual demand that exceeds the equivalent of
the combined broadband network usage of the previous decade
(1998-2008). Driving the
bandwidth explosion is use of online video and data services,
which includes the BBC's iPlayer and YouTube, has seen the demand
for internet bandwidth soar.
The author of the new independent study, David Payne, formerly
BT and now with the Institute of Advanced Telecommunications at
Swansea University, has calculated that the increasing demands are
not a temporary change in behaviour, but the beginning of a massive
requirement for additional bandwidth as the use of online video and
data services increases.
David Payne explained, "Around the turn of the millennium, we
used to talk about a bandwidth glut. There was a lot of idle
capacity. Networks now are being used in a way that few people
foresaw, for example early take-up of personalised video, rather
than broadcast television, dominating internet video services.
Based on a range of service scenario models, it is clear that
demands for bandwidth will continue to put increasing pressure on
existing network infrastructures.
“By 2018, assuming that this capacity is made available by the
operators; usage could grow to 40 to 100 times the levels seen in
networks today. However it is difficult to see how operators can
economically grow existing network architectures to meet this
demand, and further consideration of the types of networks and the
technology deployed is required if they are to ensure
profitability.”
CIP concluded that a significant investment is needed to ensure
that businesses can share large files and send high quality images
for health, design and videoconferencing purposes. Said David
Smith, Chief Technology Officer for CIP, said: "Current telecom
networks will be unable to cope with the scaling demands for
bandwidth. A step-change in technology is needed that can not only
deliver this bandwidth demand at economic cost but also
significantly reduce the amount of energy required to power and
cool it. The current technology will be physically too large and
energy-hungry to deliver the levels of bandwidth growth demanded by
users. A new technology is required that will help deliver the
bandwidth and support the telcos' challenge to reduce costs and
their carbon footprint."