A new analysis by Juniper Research of the global opportunity for
WiMAX 802.16e to deliver ´local loop´ broadband connectivity
forecasts that WiMAX will begin to take off over the 2009 to 2011
period.
By 2013, Juniper estimates that there will be more than 47
million subscribers globally and that there is a significant
opportunity for WiMAX as a DSL substitute technology.
However, the report cautions that the two key issues dictating
take-up for this technology will be the availability of suitable
devices, and timely network construction.
Service providers need to complete build programmes on time in
order to achieve sustainable WiMAX based businesses, said the
research firm, and they also need to translate trials into
commercial networks offering reliable and attractively-packaged
services.
With all things being equal, Juniper found that WiMAX is well
suited to rapid deployment in the many underserved areas, not only
in developing areas, but also in developed countries. The firm
expects global WiMAX service revenues, as a DSL replacement
technology, to grow to over $20bn per annum by 2013.
The primary DSL replacement regions will likely be The Far East;
North America; Western Europe and Africa/Middle East. In all,
Juniper forecasts that around 12% of the forecast DSL subscriber
base for 2013 will be replaced by WiMAX.
Commented report author Howard Wilcox said: "We determined that the
vast majority of the WiMAX 802.16e trials and network contracts
which are being announced almost daily will begin by providing
fixed broadband.
“WiMAX can deliver broadband not only to unwired areas, but can
also improve speeds for subscribers who are on the fringe of DSL
coverage in metropolitan areas. We anticipate that mobile usage
will develop after initial demand for fixed and portable services.
WiMAX 802.16e is a flexible platform that can operate in all three
modes of usage."