Even though the worldwide PC market is expected to grow
by double digit fissures, analyst firm Gartner is warning that
growth could fall into single digits if what it calls ‘global
economic headwinds’ strengthen.
The market research firm forecasts that worldwide PC shipments will
total 293 million units in 2008, up 10.9%. Worldwide demand for
mobile PCs, a robust replacement market and demand in emerging
markets would be the key drivers fuelling the optimistic growth
scenario. However, it pointed to a deepening US recession, the
rising possibility of a sharp slowdown in China's economy following
the Beijing Olympics, and the elevated price of oil acting as
potential dampers to the predicted expansion.
"In many respects, the PC market is fundamentally in good shape.
Mobile PCs continue to exhibit strong momentum, emerging-market
growth remains robust, and desk-based PC replacement activity is
stirring," commented George Shiffler, research director at
Gartner.
Gartner’s research identified technology and design improvements
that have not only lowered the price of mobile PCs but that, in its
opinion, also significantly improved their value proposition
relative to desk-based PCs.
The relative value of mobile PCs has also been bolstered by the
continued expansion of mobile access, and this increase in value
continues to stimulate strong demand for mobile PCs across both
mature and emerging markets. Gartner analysts said mobile PC
shipments will gain additional momentum as so-called "affordable"
mobile PCs, which address price points once thought impossible for
mobile PCs, become more widely available.
Emerging-market PC unit shipments grew 22% in the fourth quarter
of 2007, accounting for 60% of worldwide PC unit growth in
Gartner’s survey. Robust PC shipments to emerging markets are being
fuelled by several factors, the most important of which is strong
economic growth.
However, Gartner warns that PC shipment growth will ultimately
depend on the interplay between these drivers and the global
economy.
"Slowing GDP growth can and does affect PC shipments through its
impact on consumer incomes and business profits," Shiffler added.
"Although the impact has probably softened over time as PC prices
have fallen and PCs have become more indispensable to work and
play, PCs are still far from being completely recession-proof. A
deeper and more extended global slowdown emanating from the US and
China would slow PC unit growth even more by sapping mobile PC
demand, slowing emerging-market growth, and delaying replacement
activity."