The number ofmobile messageswillsurpass two trillionin major markets
next year, although operators will have to plan for tighter margins
as services become commoditised, said analyst Gartner.
Gartner says 2.3 trillion messages, including picture messages,
will be sent across major markets worldwide in 2008, a 19.6%
increase from the 2007 total of 1.9 trillion messages.
Mobile messaging revenue across major markets will grow 15.7% in
2008 to £30.1bn, up from £26m in 2007.
Although mobile messaging traffic volumes will continue to show
strong growth in many markets, operator margins on messaging
services have become progressively thinner as a result of
competition and market saturation, Gartner said.
It said the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for short message
service (SMS) revenue in major markets worldwide from 2002 to 2006
was 29.8%. But from 2007 to 2011, the CAGR for SMS revenue is
forecast to be 9.9%.
"In many markets, there has been strong pressure on operator
margins for text messaging services, and this has often been driven
by intense competition between carriers," said Nick Ingelbrecht, a
Gartner analyst.
"At the same time, consumers have grown accustomed to large or
unlimited bundles of inclusive SMS as part of their basic cellular
service package. Carriers should plan for a future of much reduced
margins on messaging services.
"They should develop messaging platforms, services portfolios
and pricing plans that support the broader objectives of customer
acquisition and retention, rather than short-term margin
enhancements," said Ingelbrecht.