Vista pick-up will be rapid, says Ovum

Microsoft’s Windows Vista looks set to be more rapidly adopted than any previous version of the operating system, according to industry analysts.

David Mitchell, software practice leader at analyst firm Ovum, said he expected “a relatively quick” initial adoption pattern for Vista, which is set to be released to corporate users at the end of this month.

“Within 12 months of the consumer launch of Windows Vista we would anticipate 12%-15% penetration of Windows Vista in the desktop market.”

He added, “If the actual adoption rate is close to the top end of Ovum forecasts then Windows Vista will be more rapidly adopted than any previous Windows operating system.”

But he cautioned against expecting a more dramatic adoption rate, noting, “The Windows Vista value proposition still needs clarity and polish.” Microsoft would need to convince users in different economic circumstances and varying professional disciplines of the new operating system’s advantages.

Mitchell added that the five-year interval between the release of Windows XP and Vista was “too long and undermines the feasibility of programmes such as Microsoft's Software Assurance”.

This length of time between releases offered Microsoft’s competitors “a stick to beat them with - and a large one at that”.

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