PC shipments have started to ease off, as expected, but
the worldwide PC market remained fairly strong in the third
quarter, according to research from IDC and Gartner.
Suppliers shipped a total of 44.2 million units during the third
quarter, a growth rate of 11.9% compared to the same period last
year, according to IDC. Gartner calculated a total of 46.9 million
units shipped during the quarter, reflecting growth of 9.7%.
IDC and Gartner cover the market in largely the same way,
although Gartner includes certain types of systems, such as white
boxes, that IDC excludes. White boxes are PCs assembled and sold
without a brand name, mostly by local distributors.
Dell extended its market share lead among all suppliers
worldwide with shipments of 8.1 million PCs, or 18.2% of the
market, said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly
PC Tracker.
The PC market is coming down from the soaring growth rates
posted during 2003, when PC companies finally managed to convince
businesses and consumers that the time was right to replace aging
PCs bought prior to 2000.
Most PC suppliers did so well during 2003 that they have set
themselves up for tough comparisons in 2004 as that growth
inevitably stalls, Loverde said.
Gartner saw the strongest effect of that slowdown in the US
market where shipments grew only 5% in the third quarter, compared
to expectations of 8% growth for the region.
Most analysts had expected the worldwide PC market to drop into
single-digit growth numbers next year as the market moves past a
consumer peak that occurred earlier this year, but Gartner's
numbers suggest that has already happened.
"Basically, it's all part of a healthy and relatively normal
recovery," Loverde said. But IDC is a little worried about consumer
buying headed into the fourth quarter holiday season, which is
usually the strongest quarter for PC purchases.
Until then, commercial customers are keeping shipment growth at
the levels IDC expected earlier this year, Loverde said. This is
especially true in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)
region, which saw shipments grow by about 19% compared to last
year, he said.
The EMEA market tends to lag behind the US market in terms of
recovery and trends, and right now EMEA is going through the
notebook replacement cycle that was prevalent in the US late last
year and early this year, Loverde said.
PC shipments in most Asia-Pacific countries is also growing
faster than the overall worldwide rate. Shipment growth in Japan
has been a little weaker than in some of its neighbouring countries
in part because many Japanese customers have already switched over
to notebook PCs, he said.
Dell still remains on top of the worldwide market, with a 21%
increase in shipments compared to last year and a 2% market share
advantage on Hewlett-Packard, according to IDC. HP is the leading
PC supplier to Europe, but Dell has a much larger share of the US
market.
HP shipped 7.2 million PCs during the third quarter worldwide,
up 9.1% from last year, IDC said.
IBM and Toshiba had solid quarters on the strength of the
commercial PC market, Loverde said. IBM was third worldwide with
shipments of 2.6 million units, while Toshiba was fifth with 1.6
million units shipped. Both companies recorded shipment growth of
about 16.5%.
Fujitsu and its Fujitsu Siemens counterpart were fourth in terms
of worldwide shipments with 1.7 million units shipped during the
quarter, an increase of almost 11%, IDC said.
Gartner ranked the top five worldwide suppliers in the same
order as IDC, with slight differences in terms of units shipped and
market share.
IDC will wait for the fourth quarter numbers before making any
predictions about how fast the expected drop-off in shipment growth
will proceed, Loverde said. Earlier this year, IDC said the PC
market would grow 8.7% in 2005.
The fourth quarter is usually the most active quarter of the
year, Loverde said. About 28.8% of all PC shipments for the full
year have come during the fourth quarter over the last two years,
he said. In Western Europe, that percentage increases to 32.8%.
The top five suppliers in the third quarter as ranked by
worldwide PC shipments, according to IDC data are Dell, HP, IBM,
Fujitsu/Fujitsu Siemens and Toshiba.
Tom Krazit writes for IDG News Service