Broadband service uptake has continued to grow in Europe
despite obstacles posed by incumbent telecommunication companies,
and is now entering a "third stage" of growth where advanced
services such as VoIP will become more readily available to
consumers.
London research and consulting firm Strategy Analytics estimated
that Europe will have 33.5 million broadband subscribers by the end
of this year, representing 20% of all homes. By 2008, 41% of
European homes will have broadband subscriptions.
"The growth is being driven primarily by countries that have
strong competitors to the incumbent telecommunication network
operator, such as the Benelux countries - which have big cable
operators offering broadband services - as well as Switzerland and
Sweden, followed by Norway and Finland," said Martin Olausson,
senior analyst at Strategy Analytics.
Sweden, Switzerland and Belgium - the countries with the
strongest competition to incumbent telecommunication operators -
are expected to have most aggressive broadband uptake by 2008 with
penetration rates of between 55% and 60%.
Those forecasts are in line with a similar study released by IDC
last December, which stated that the number of broadband
connections will grow from 13 million in 2002 and almost 24 million
in 2003, to 63 million in 2007.
Additionally, revenue will grow from €.3.3bn 2002 to more
than €22.2bn in 2007.
The IDC study identified Denmark as having the highest broadband
penetration, ahead of Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands and
Sweden.
The UK, Germany and France, while experiencing a steady uptake
in broadband services, are still somewhat hampered by strong
incumbent telecommunication companies, such as BT, Deutsche Telekom
and France Télécom, according to Olausson.
"In Germany, you've got DT basically controlling all of the DSL
market, for example," Olausson said. "Government regulation on
unbundling has been important in those countries. It has certainly
had an impact in France, though at this point, less so in
Germany."
He also believed broadband marketing is entering what he called
the third phase of its evolution.
"Availability of broadband was the first stage, with the second
stage moving to companies offering the highest speed at the lowest
price. Now price tiering aimed at different user segments is
widespread and we're moving into the third stage where successful
service providers will be those that offer multiple broadband
services such as VoIP and video."
Within the next three to four years, disruptive technologies
such as VoIP will begin to have a real effect on the broadband
market. "The more advanced operators, particularly the incumbents,
are starting to see VoIP being as a clear migration path rather
than simply a complementary service," Olausson said.
The IDC study found that smaller operators are already
attempting to differentiate themselves from the incumbent by
packaging voice with their DSL services, especially in France and,
more recently, in the Netherlands.
Worldwide, the VoIP market will dominate the €38.7bn broadband
value-added services market in 2009, accounting for €13bn,
according to a study released in March by Jupiter Research.
Laura Rohde writes for IDG News
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