About 50% of all radio frequency identification tagging
pilot projects conducted worldwide have already been written off as
failures and most of the rest have yielded indifferent results,
according to analyst organisation Meta Group.
Despite being heavily promoted as the next big technology in supply
chain and retail, investment in RFID will actually drop next year
as companies pause to re-evaluate the true potential of the
technology, the analyst firm said.
Retailers such as Tesco, Wal-Mart and Metro Group have been leading
the charge on RFID, but many firms are hanging back and waiting for
issues such as technology standards and the type of signals used to
be resolved, Meta said.
Wal-Mart, which wants its top 100 suppliers to RFID tag all
incoming goods by 2005, last month admitted that its first target -
for suppliers of tightly controlled prescription drugs - had been
missed.
Despite teething problems, the technology - which allows goods to
be electronically tracked along the supply chain - still has
promise in the long term, said Will Cappelli, an analyst at
Meta.
"Although the current dampening of expectations surrounding RFID is
a natural reaction to the almost hysterical enthusiasm that
characterised discussions of this technology during the first half
of 2003, organisations should still prepare for RFID's
pervasiveness in the longer term," he said.
"By 2008, we anticipate that approximately 30% of manufactured
capital goods will be RFID-enabled, with that percentage growing to
80% by 2013."
Separate research from the Yankee Group was equally confident about
the long-term prospects for RFID, predicting that £2.35bn will be
spent on the technology by 2008.
The analyst firm outlined an RFID roadmap for companies, beginning
with cleaning and then synchronising the data.
Second, Yankee said, companies should define their network supply
management technology roadmap, including a migration plan for RFID
deployment.
Finally, from 2005 to 2008, companies should begin implementing
their roadmap and be building collaborative planning capabilities
to make the analysis and decision-making process about RFID
clearer.
Support centre for RFID launched
A network of support services to promote the widespread development
of RFID will be launched by UK supply chain standards group
e.centre in London on 28 April.
The support framework, known as the EPCglobal Gateway, will give
suppliers and retailers access to training to enable them to
influence upcoming standards for RFID.
As well as training, e.centre will also send regular e-bulletins
updating members on the latest developments in the technology.