Demand for proprietary wireless broadband systems is
growing quickly, although the first WiMax equipment will not make
it through the certification process before the middle of next
year, according to a study by ABI Research.
"The market cannot ignore the momentum behind some of these
proprietary technologies," said ABI analyst Edward Rerisi. "With
equipment prices comparable or sometimes cheaper to those initially
promised by WiMax, the market for these technologies is growing at
an incredibly fast clip."
WiMax is seen as doing for broadband wireless what Wi-Fi did for
the wireless Lan - making it cheap and accessible.
The technology promises an alternative to existing broadband in
urban areas, and is being tested by BT as a cheap way of blanketing
remote rural areas with ADSL- such as wireless services; a later
update will add mobility service for laptops.
WiMax could allow companies to network widely separated
facilities without the need to lay cable or rely on an outside
service provider.
Alcatel last week announced its first products using Intel's
WiMax 802.16d chipset, which could be the first gear to arrive on
the market when it arrives in the second half of this year. Testing
and certification means it will not be available to the general
public until a year later.
Unlike Wi-Fi, WiMax will need the backing of both large telcos
and large equipment makers to succeed, and at the moment telcos are
not rushing to board the WiMax bandwagon, said the ABI.
Nextel Communications and Sprint, for example, two of the
biggest wireless carriers in the US, are both licensing the
spectrum needed to provide wireless broadband services, but have
said they will not wait for WiMax-standard equipment if it takes
too long.
Other telcos are showing a more active interest. BT is running
trials of fixed WiMax in Scotland, Wales, Cornwall and Northern
Ireland, and said it would investigate the mobile WiMax 802.16e
standard when it becomes available next year. 802.16e is intended
to add mobile capabilities to 802.16d equipment with a simple
upgrade.
"While many suppliers have pledged support for WiMax, operators'
plans for the technology remains guarded [while] actual spending on
proprietary technologies surges," ABI noted.
Operators are wary of any technology promising a wireless
utopia, and are unlikely to take WiMax seriously until equipment
prices have come down and the technology is proven, said Pyramid
Research in a recent report. "The fixed wireless industry is
littered with broken promises," said Pyramid analyst John
Yunker.
This situation means WiMax will not become mainstream until the
end of this decade, ABI predicted, when WiMax spending will eclipse
that of other technologies. The firm expected the WiMax industry to
hit an annual turnover of $1bn by 2009.
Intel pointed out that the WiMax Forum, the body shaping the
standard, has only been active for about 18 months, noting that it
has taken 10 years for Wi-Fi to take off.
"The lesson the industry learned from Wi-Fi is that to make a
standard successful, you need to get broad industry support, and
get standards ratified," an Intel spokesman said.
Matthew
Broersma writes for Techworld.com