The number of wireless Lan (WLan) hot spots worldwide
will more than double by 2005, according to a Gartner
analyst.
Potential fans of the hot spots, where internet access is
available to users of notebook PCs and other devices equipped with
IEEE 802.11 technology, are frustrated by the limited number of hot
spots available and the lack of consistency among billing systems,
according to Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney.
The report forecasted there would be 71,079 hot spots worldwide
this year, up from just 14,752 in 2002 and 1,214 in 2001. The
number of hot spots is likely to grow to 151,768 by 2005.
The report said that there would be 9.3 million visitors to hot
spots in 2003, up from 2.5 million in 2002. North America, with 4.7
million users, will top both Europe and Asia-Pacific this year.
Gartner said Asia-Pacific had 2.7 million users and 1.7 million in
Europe this year.
Professional users of notebook PCs increasingly have the
capability to use WLans, with a majority projected to have 802.11
capability on their notebooks in 2004, but hot spot use
probably would not reach "critical mass" for three to five years,
Dulaney said.
He defined the term to mean that more than half of users pay for
hot spot access on a monthly bill rather than per use. Before that
happens, users will need pervasive access to hot spots, a
consistent login experience and a single bill.
Coverage is good but it will not draw that critical mass
of users until enough of them find they can walk to a hot spot or
reach it by driving a short distance, he said.
In addition, users want to be able to log on to different
service providers' hot spots, linked through a roaming agreement,
without having to go through different sign-on procedures, Dulaney
said.
However, this poses both technical and business issues for the
service providers, he said. Issues include what the rates should
be, who should get what portion of the revenue and what the quality
of service should be.
"It's a serious problem. It's going to take some time to get
sorted out," Dulaney said.
A public WLan could also benefit the provider, either a carrier
or an enterprise, in ways other than bringing in its own revenue
stream, he said.
For example, a fast food restaurant might adopt a WLan to give
its workers mobility and improve their productivity. It could use
that same WLans to draw customers. It would not be there as a
profit centre itself and, in some cases, access might even be free,
which would save the provider the cost of a billing system, he
added.
By the same token, a mobile phone operator might wrap an
all-you-can-eat hot spot access service into a customer's monthly
bill as an enticement.
The carrier "might not make a profit on that, but they get you
as a customer. What they would do is make a profit on the overall
package of services they give you," Dulaney said.
Europe is behind the US in the hot spot trend, said Dulaney.
Prices for access are higher in Europe because the various parties
involved, such as the service provider, wireline backhaul carrier
and venue operator, demand more money than they do in the US. In
addition, no one in Europe has successfully led a movement toward
billing interoperability, he added.
A majority of the hot spots worldwide this year, a total of
50,287, will be in retail outlets, such as coffee shops,
restaurants and petrol stations, Gartner estimated.
In 2005, retail still will lead with a predicted 85,567 hot
spots. Other popular places for hot spots include airports, hotels,
train stations and the public areas of enterprise facilities.
Stephen Lawson writes for IDG News Service