Worldwide PC shipments for 2002 and 2003 will rise but lack of
compelling technologies and worries about the economy are causing
users to hang on to their older computers, putting a dampener on
industry recovery.
Market research company Dataquest said PC shipments would reach
127.3 million units this year, up 1.8% from last year. Next year's
shipments are forecast to grow by 7%.
The numbers indicate some recovery in spending on PCs and are an
improvement on the 4.2% decline in shipments that occurred in 2001.
However, they are a far cry from the double-digit growth in PC
shipments experienced in the late 1990s.
PC buyers are still concerned about the economy, according to
George Shiffler, principal analyst for Dataquest's computing
platforms and economics research. "There is growth but not strong
growth and it's a pretty marked slowdown from 1999 to 2000, when
users went on a year-2000 buying binge," Shiffler said. PC shipment
growth in 2000 was 13.6%, he noted.
"The PCs bought during the buying binge are due to be replaced, but
the sticky wicket is that users may be hanging on to them longer
than they normally would because they are worried about the
economy," said Shiffler.
Although prices are falling on PC components and peripherals,
Dataquest said there was no single compelling technology working to
overcome general economic fears.
For example, rewriteable DVD prices are likely to decline but the
war among vendors over drive formats is creating uncertainty in the
market and undercutting the attraction of falling prices.
This lack of an attractive, standout technology is putting the
brakes on growth in PC shipments for the fourth quarter this year,
which includes the end-of-year buying season, according to
Dataquest.
The company forecasts worldwide PC shipments to be 35.1 million
units in the fourth quarter, a relatively weak 1.5% increase from
last year's fourth quarter.
Financial and technology issues will curb holiday purchases
especially in developed countries such as the US and Japan, and
other countries with high PC penetration in the home, Dataquest
said.