Gigabit Ethernet will evolve from a corporate network backbone into
a technology of choice for service providers seeking to build
relatively simple and inexpensive metropolitan and wide area
networks.
That is one of the findings made in a report released on 31 October
by market research firm Pioneer Consulting.
In addition to offering service providers cost savings that may be
passed on to customers, Gigabit Ethernet will enable carriers to
deliver just the bandwidth a customer needs, right when they need
it, said Doug McEuen, the report's author.
"Carriers can provision a network connection within minutes,
instead of months like SONet [today's commonly used Synchronous
Optical Network technology]," said McEuen.
"As a consumer, I can call up and ask my carrier to give me twice
as much bandwidth between 2pm and 4pm, because I'm having a
videoconference."
By the end of 2005, service providers and corporations will spend a
total of $30.5bn (£21bn) a year on equipment for 1Gbps Gigabit
Ethernet, and $13.5bn on still-emerging 10-Gigabit Ethernet
technology, said Pioneer.
The total $44bn represents cumulative growth of 856%, compared with
estimated revenue of $4.6bn in 2001. The greater part of Gigabit
Ethernet use in 2005 will be in service provider networks rather
than corporate local area networks, McEuen said.
Worldwide sales of all Ethernet equipment - 10Mbps, 100Mbps, 1Gbps
and 10Gbps - will grow from $17.3bn to $145.2bn, said Pioneer. Much
of that expansion will come from outside the US. The report
predicts the US will represent 45% of the Gigabit Ethernet market
in 2005, down from 80% in 2001.
The fastest growth in Gigabit Ethernet adoption will occur in
Europe, McEuen said. With a large number of dense metropolitan
areas and a large existing deployment of SONet rings, European
service providers are likely to find Gigabit Ethernet an attractive
and relatively easy upgrade.
Carriers in Asia will also adopt the technology rapidly, although
not as fast as in Europe. Their large installed base of Frame Relay
and ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) systems will be more
difficult to replace with Gigabit Ethernet.
High-speed carrier networks in Latin America are just getting off
the ground in many areas, and Gigabit Ethernet could leapfrog other
technologies, McEuen said.
Although Gigabit Ethernet was not originally designed with the
reliability needed by carrier networks, enhancements now being
developed by several equipment vendors should make it more
attractive to service providers.
Startups, as well as established vendors such as Cisco Systems, are
working on features that would bring carrier-class reliability and
predictability to Gigabit Ethernet-based services.
Some vendors already have trials of carrier-class Gigabit Ethernet
underway with service providers, and full-scale roll-outs of these
types of systems may come within a year, McEuen said.
In the meantime, a working group of the Institute of Electrical and
Electronics Engineers, which governs the Ethernet standard, is
working on standardising Resilient Packet Ring. Some equipment
vendors are adopting a set of these enhancements.