Global purchases of IT goods and services will equal $1.66 trillion in 2009, declining by 3% after an 8% rise in 2008, says analyst Forrester.
A declining US dollar boosted 2008 growth rates, but a stronger dollar will hurt growth measured in dollars in 2009.
Growth in a weighted average of local currencies will be 3%. IT purchases will recover in 2010, growing by 9% in US dollars and 6% in local currencies, said the analyst.
Recessions in the US and many industrial countries will be the main cause of a 2009 slump, with currency fluctuations a secondary factor.
Western and Central Europe and Canada and Latin America will have the weakest growth, at 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, in local currencies.
The US tech market will do a bit better, with 1.6% growth. Asia Pacific and the oil-exporting area of Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa will do the best, but growth there will still be weak, at 3.1% and 5.4%, respectively.
Software purchases will do a bit better than other categories, but all suppliers will face a tough time until late 2009 or early 2010, Forrester said.