If all projects were the same, then we could run them like an assembly-line, with very accurate estimates to complete, and low delivery risk. But 'if' is a big word. Some environments encourge risk-taking, while others simply cannot tolerate any risk. I do, however, suggest that some principles can be applied to all Projects to minimise if not mitigate the risk of failure, over-run or cancellation.
You don't know what you don't know .... and it's what you don't know that comprises the majority of risk exposure. A Risk is just an Issue waiting to happen. If all projects had the same risk exposure, duplicating success would be easy.
I like Dr Robert Charette's statement that 'No project was ever cancelled quick enough'. By the time you've got enough information (not just data), and the knowledge to make a decision to cancel, you've been burning money and time. I suggest that timely and accurate metrics are therefore paramount for all projects. If the project is'nt important enough to know it's exact state - then why is it still running?
My hobby for many years was building my own airplane. I was constantly amused to see ads in the magazine for homebuilders stating 'for sale, project 80% complete'. Having spoken to many of my friends who have bought a part-built project, the ad should have read 'for sale, project 80% with 80% to go'. OK, tongue in cheek ..... but I bet you've worked on projects like this! I had a Porject Manager many years ago that would not let me declare a Work Package as over 50% completed until it was.
If you have a project that cannot tolerate failure, you must put in place a regime that will give you early and accurate warnings that it may be coming off the rails - before it does.
How many Projects are planned, estimated, a Risk Map produced, and then it put on the shelf to gather dust while the project quietly becomes just another failure statistic? I certainly know of many Lessons Learned documents that have met this fate.
No matter how good the Project Initiation is, without accurate and timely Oversight and Gevernance throughout the Project execution, the risk of Project Failure is still high.How many times can you afford to get it wrong?
Here's a link to Dr Charette on how there aren't enough IT project failures...
Dr Charette takes a very pargmatic approach to Risk Reduction in IT. He's recently developed an interactive assessment so that you can score your own risk profile.