I had forgotten quite how sharp Sir Michael Marshall, Charles Christian and myself were thirty years ago when similar arguments were in vogue. Amazon has now delivered a replacement for my last copy of what we wrote (loaned and never returned). Below is a scan of the first page of the text of “No End of Jobs”. Remember it was written in 1984, so for Japan you might read China. For West Germany you might read India.
Most of the forecasts have come true, or are well on the to coming true – save that we have imported immigrants to look after our elderly in overcrowded NHS hospitals, instead of making use of technology to enable them to live at home. One of the themes was the job creation effects of “prolonged active life”: resulting from automating records and administration to enable clinicians to spend time with patients instead of on paperwork, from the manufacture and installation of “robotics for rheumatics” to enable independent living for longer, as well as from all the telecare and telemedicine technologies that we are still talking about but not deploying.
The obstacles to do with the organisation of funding that we identified then have still not been addressed. Indeed they may now be worse. The overheads and waste resulting from the centralisation, bureaucratisation and outsourcing of our health and welfare systems, with funding fragmented for distribution down leaky silo’d drainpipes, means we are commonly spending more to achieve less, or at least to achieve far less than recent advances in knowledge and technology should have enabled us to achieve.
I plan to scan the rest of the paper.