One in five, some 422 million, households worldwide will
have a fixed broadband connection in the home by the end of 2009,
according to market analyst Gartner.
This is up from 382 million households in 2008, and the market
will steadily grow with nearly 580 million households having a
fixed broadband connection by 2013, the firm said in a
report.
The UK is expected to slip from 11th most connected country
today to 12th by then, it said (see table). However, BT
said last week its fixed wire broadband network could reach up
to 75% of homes by 2011, if consumers demanded it.
The report referred to broadband as fixed broadband technologies
such as DSL, cable modem, FTTH/FTTP/Ethernet, and other high-speed
technologies. These include static fixed-line replacement
technology for the main broadband access into the home, such as
multichannel multipoint distribution service [MMDS], LANDesk
management suite [LDMS], Wimax, satellite and power lines.
Despite the recession consumers were not signing off from
broadband, said Amanda Sabia, principal research analyst at
Gartner. Keeping demand strong were cheaper PCs, migration from
dial-up, cheaper broadband subscriptions, aging populations that
needed broadband connectivity, and country-specific economic and
broadband-specific stimulus plans, she said.
At the end of 2008, some 21 countries had broadband connections
in at least 50% of homes. In some the rates were much higher, the
highest being South Korea at 86% and the lowest Indonesia at less
than 1%.
Gartner said that China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Thailand, Latin American countries, Eastern Europe,
the Middle East and Africa would together over the next five years
provide twice as many new consumer broadband connections as mature
markets: 135 million vs. 62 million connections, respectively.
The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) would add
92 million (68%) of that, giving them almost half (47%) of the
total global increase in connections. China would lead with 62
million (46%) of the 135 million new broadband connections in
emerging markets.
Gartner expected the US to add 27 million new broadband
connections between 2008 and 2013, the most in mature markets.
Japan would add almost 10 million, Germany 5 million and the UK
slightly over 3 million connections, it said.
Despite the growth in emerging markets, there would also be more
new household, pegging down penetration rates, Gartner said. This
meant the digital divide would remain in the 50% to 54% range for
the foreseeable future, it said.
Gartner estimated that the world market for consumer fixed
voice, internet and broadband services was worth $372bn in 2008 of
which 27% was broadband access. Broadband services would continue
to drive revenue growth, offsetting declining revenue from voice,
and supplying almost 40% of the $347bn total revenue in 2013, it
said.
Sabia said manufacturers of modems, routers and PCs and
providers of carrier infrastructure would benefit most from the
increase in connections. "Government, medical and educational
institutions will have alternative access to their customers via
the household broadband connection," she said.