Global purchases of IT goods and services will grow 6%,
down from the previous preliminary forecast of 9%, according to a
new Forrester report.
"Our forecast is based on a
mild recession in the US economy in the first two to three
quarters of 2008," said Forrester Research vice-president Andrew
Bartels. "While it is by no means certain that the US economy will
in fact experience a recession, the risks of one are high enough to
justify a more conservative outlook for the IT market."
The US remains the largest single market for IT goods and
services, so it is no surprise that the global market
is heavily affected by what happens to the US market. But US
purchases of IT goods and services will grow 2.8%, down from its
previous forecast of 4.6%.
Forrester uses several metrics to determine the health and size
of the IT market: how much equipment, services and consulting
companies and governments are buying from suppliers.
The US share of global IT purchases
continues to contract. In 2003, the US market represented 40%
of the global market for IT goods and services by 2008, it will
shrink to a 33% share. Asia Pacific is the largest region for
computer equipment the US and Asia Pacific each have about
one-third of the communications equipment market. Only in software
does the US market still dominate, with a 44% share of the global
software market.