Deutsche Bank economist admits: 'I got it wrong on Y2K recession prediction'


Deutsche Bank economist admits: 'I got it wrong on Y2K recession prediction'

Bill Goodwin

Bill Goodwin

Ed Yardeni, the US economist who warned that the millennium bug was likely to plunge the world into recession, admitted this week that he was wrong.

Yardeni, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, and one of the best-known commentators on the year 2000 problem said this week that the Y2K rollover had turned out to be a non-event.

Yardeni warned in August that the chances of the bug causing a global recession were as high as 70%. He toned down his forecast in December, but said that a recession was still likely.

"I was wrong but I am happy that Y2K has been a non-event," he said in a statement on Monday.

"Some of you might like to offer me as a human sacrifice to the forecasting gods. If you spare me this time, I promise I won't go on any more crusades," he added.

His comments follow accusations from some commentators and angry businesspeople that the Y2K problem was exaggerated.

Canadian Y2K expert Peter De Jager, one of the first to warn of the bug problem, has been forced to take time-off after receiving a series of hate e-mails and a telephone death threat. Police are investigating the incidents.

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