Cloud computing needs seven years to mature before it becomes part of mainstream IT, says analyst firm Gartner.
Despite initial excitement and growth, cloud computing will become the preferred option for application development projects only around 2015, according to a Gartner report.
In the next three years, says Gartner, cloud computing will begin to mature and be dominated by a select group of vendors.
After that, Gartner predicts a surge of new vendors and subsequent consolidation as cloud computing becomes appealing to application development organisations.
Cloud computing service-enabled applications (SEAPs) are the foundation on which software-as-a-service solutions are built, said Mark Driver, research vice president at Gartner.
"As SEAP technologies mature during the next several years, Gartner foresees three distinct, but slightly overlapping, phases of evolution," said Driver.
The first phase until 2011 will be that of the pioneers and trailblazers; the second from 2010 to 2013 will be all about market consolidation; while the third phase from 2012 to 2015, will see mainstream critical mass and commoditisation.