Managed services and core business applications will benefit the most from a boom in enterprise wireless, a study claims.
Strategy Analytics' report "Wireless Enterprise Ecosystem Outlook 2004 -2009", has predicted the wireless Lan and wireless Wan industry will end up looking much like the PC business in five years' time, with cheap, standardised hardware and most industry revenues generated by software and services.
In the wireless industry, however, the process of commoditisation will be much more extreme. "The PC market was much less fragmented from the start," said Cliff Raskin, director of Strategy Analytics' global wireless practice.
"It was fortunate to have one device, the PC running Intel microcode, and basically one protocol, Internet Protocol. This does not characterise the mobile world."
Transport, or revenues from providing networks, will be the smallest piece of the pie, with wireless Wans (such as GPRS and 3G networks) amounting to 6% of the industry and hotspots just 1%.
The two big winners in the software arena will be managed services and core business applications. Managed services, such as outsourced services, service bureaus and wireless application service providers (Wasps), are dwarfed by system integration, but this will change. In 2009, system integration will form 12% of industry revenues, compared with 24% today, while managed services will make up 26% of all revenues.
Similarly, revenues from "enabling" software will drop to 5% for operating systems and 4% for middleware, while applications will grow to 19% by 2009, Raskin said.
Strategy Analytics said this is partly a result of the increasing trend toward commodity hardware and standard protocols. This means enterprises will not have to spend as much on buying and setting up wireless systems, and will be able to concentrate instead on the services and applications these systems are supposed to provide. Costs for services are expected to drop as the offerings sign on more users.
"There is a certain amount of price elasticity there," said Robin Duke-Woolley, director of technology consultant E-Principles, who agreed that the wireless industry is heading down the path of commoditisation, which will mean good things for enterprise customers, even as it makes life difficult for hardware makers.
"As those become commoditised, that makes it easier to connect and more user friendly. Anything like that helps to reduce costs," he said. "That's a good thing. As those costs come down, the likelihood of using wireless networks increases. It helps to enable the market."
So what kind of applications will succeed? Strategy Analytics and others singled out e-mail as wireless' killer app, but Raskind noted that businesses could not expect a clear return on investment from e-mail alone.
Other applications, such as sales-force automation (SFA), systems linking field sales representatives with companies' centralised systems, could be more alluring to businesses. "We are particularly optimistic on the prospects for mobile SFA as that added application that will convince sceptics to reach the tilting point in terms of making a significant investment in wireless," Raskind said.
Enterprise software makers believe mobile SFA is a large untapped market. In a recent survey conducted by Sybase subsidiary iAnywhere Solutions, 80% of respondents said a PDA-based SFA system would make them more productive in the field.
Another big market will be imaging applications of all kinds. These could be just about anything, from systems "highly integrated into corporate platforms, insurance adjusters' accident reports for example, to generic MMS being used by small construction companies to report progress", said Raskind.
E-Principles' Duke-Woolley added that IP telephony is also seeing more interest from enterprises. "There are also tremendous opportunities in video conferencing and video telephony using PC technology over a wireless network," he said. "There are high traffic requirements for that as well, which adds value for operators."
Enterprises are showing strong interest in the combination of Wi-Fi and IP telephony, even though the technology faces serious hurdles before it can become widespread.
Nevertheless, Wi-Fi phones - particularly those also capable of connecting over cellular networks - are already predicted to boom. A report from ABI Research predicted that such dual-mode handsets would top 50 million by 2009, and would represent about 7% of all handsets shipped in that year.
"Many enterprises now have established Wi-Fi networks and integrating voice-over-Wi-Fi functionality is a natural progression," said Phil Solis, senior Wi-Fi analyst at ABI Research.
"As Wi-Fi networks proliferate, it only makes sense to give users the ability to switch from the cellular carrier's network to the enterprise Wi-Fi network."
Hardware revenues will continue to be a significant but minority share of industry revenues, dominated by client devices such as PDAs, smartphones and Wi-Fi gear at 18% in 2009. Back-end hardware such as servers will amount to 9%, the firm said.
The wireless switch market is already proving too tough for some competitors, with AirFlow Networks recently bailing out of the hardware side of the business in favour of licensing its software to other equipment makers.
Matthew Broersma writes for Techworld.com