The UK economy is set to grow at a higher rate into next year, outstripping US and European growth, according to analysis of data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift).
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Using an algorithm and data from millions of financial transactions, Swift predicts that the UK economy will be 2.6% bigger in the first quarter of 2014, compared with the same three-month period this year.
Swift’s network sends millions of financial transaction messages every day on behalf of 10,000 financial services firms. Swift has an index that predicts economic conditions based on monitoring an average of two million payment messages a day.
Swift predicts the US economy with grow by 2.2% during the same period, while the EU27 will see 0.9% growth and Germany 1.6%.
“Since launching the Swift Index in October 2012, we have seen a great deal of success, particularly in forecasts for UK and US economic recovery, post financial crisis. This proves to us that our methodology, which uses an algorithm based on Swift payment volumes and OECD data, is accurate and is an early barometer for GDP growth," said Andre Boico, head of pricing and analytics at Swift.
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“As we move into the new year, the future is bright for the UK and US economies, with the global economy not far behind,” he added.
Swift’s role in the financial sector means it collects data that indicates economic trends. Swift is a not-for-profit co-operative which began in 1973, with 239 banks on board from the start. It provides a network that sends millions of financial transaction messages every day, across more than 20 countries. About 10,000 financial services businesses use it.