Only 8% of North American software developers are writing applications to run on Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system.
Research firm Evans Data Corp surveyed 390 developers in North America and found a low take-up of Vista.
At the same time it found that half are still writing programs for Windows XP.
The developers forecast a fragmented Windows market in 2009, with only 24% expecting to target Vista and 29% expecting to continue with XP.
"Developers have taken a wait and see approach to Vista," said John Andrews, CEO at Evans Data. "The new operating system has had more than its share of problems and the desire to move from XP on the Windows platform is lagging. That coupled with interest in alternative operating systems is suppressing development activity and that in turn will further erode Vista's acceptance."
Other versions of Windows, including 2003 and Windows Server 2008, when added to the above numbers, bring the total forecast for Windows development in North America to just over 67% expecting to target some form of Windows in 2009.
More than 15% expect to target Linux.