Arsenal to beat Aston Villa in FA Cup final, says statistical analysis

Arsenal will overcome Aston Villa to retain the FA Cup, according to analysis from business intelligence and analytics software firm Yellowfin

Professorial manager Arsene Wenger can take comfort from a data analysis that predicts Arsenal will beat Aston Villa in the FA Cup final, which takes place on 30 May at Wembley Stadium.

Yellowfin, a business intelligence and analytics software firm known for data visualisation, has unveiled its analysis of the fixture that points to a second successive FA Cup final win for the north London club.

“The data should make happy reading for Arsenal fans this year, as most measures point to a higher chance of an Arsenal victory,” said Yellowfin managing director for Europe, Peter Baxter. "However, Aston Villa have conceded less goals so far during this year’s FA Cup, so there’s also still the chance of an upset."

The teams have met 190 times in the past 111 years, with Arsenal the most victorious. The club has won 79 times (41.6% of games) during direct head-to-head clashes, compared with Aston Villa’s 66 victories (34.7% of games). The sides have drawn on 45 occasions (23.7% of games).

The clubs have met 13 times in the FA Cup itself, with Arsenal winning seven times and the sides drawing on three occasions.

Comparing the average win rates of FA Cup clashes to non-FA Cup games between the two sides shows Arsenal’s win rate increases by 24.5% during FA Cup meetings.

Arsenal’s scoring rate in the FA Cup is also better than Aston Villa’s, with a ratio of 2.2 goals per game, compared with Aston Villa’s 1.8 goals per game. 

Yellowfin added financial investment into its analysis, noting that the average player in Arsenal’s 2015 squad earns £54,906 per week compared with Aston Villa’s average wage of £22,607.

Arsenal’s biggest earners are paid a six-figure weekly salary, including Theo Walcott (£193,846), Alexis Sánchez (£155,769) and Mesut Özil (£138,462).

Yellowfin’s sports statistical analysis was drawn from 11v11.com and Soccerbase.com. Player wage data was obtained from Celebritysalaries.com. The numbers were analysed using the supplier’s technology to produce data visualisations.  

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